There are moving parts in our top pick this week as the Indianapolis Colts visit the Jacksonville Jaguars in an AFC South showdown.
The Colts (3-2) lost standout rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson but found a way to win last Sunday against the Tennessee Titans.
Gardner Minshew, one of the most trusted backup quarterbacks in the NFL, took over for Richardson and once again contributed to an Indy victory.
The Jaguars moved from London — where they spent two weeks-plus and beat the Atlanta Falcons and Buffalo Bills — back to Florida without the benefit of a week off.
We have a primary play, along with a pair of bonus bets for Week 6. All odds per BetMGM.
THE HEADLINER
Colts at Jaguars, 1 p.m. ET Sunday
The line: Jaguars -4.
The return from London without a soft landing raises concern for Jaguars backers.
Coupled with the international travel, a short week follows with a Jacksonville date with the New Orleans Saints next Thursday night.
Jaguars coach Doug Pederson must be asking: Who approved this schedule?
According to Action Network stats, Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is 3-7 against the spread as a favorite, including 0-5 ATS when favored by four or more.
Most national power rankings have these teams at or near the middle of the pack in the NFL. Intangibles and variables hovering over this game have to mean a little more.
First, the line has tumbled from 5.5 down to four points, indicating our opinion on Indy is shared.
Second, Minshew is a solid game manager whose streaky passing can elevate the offense. Rookie receiver Josh Downs has seen increasing targets and has made some big plays. He’s become a nice complement to WR1 Michael Pittman.
Last Sunday in relief of Richardson, Minshew completed 11 of 14 attempts for 155 yards as Indianapolis joined Jacksonville in a tie for first in the AFC South.
Minshew faces the team that traded him prior to the start of the 2021 season — after using its No. 1 pick on his replacement, Lawrence.
But he has no hard feelings for the 3-2 Jaguars.
“Not really, man,” Minshew said. “Just excited to get out there and play football. Wherever, whenever, it’s always a good time.”
Finally, the Colts’ running game received a boost with the return of former All-Pro Jonathan Taylor — and a big effort from fellow RB Zack Moss, who rolled to 165 yards and two touchdowns last week.
Taylor’s share of the touches should certainly rise this week.
The pick: Colts +4.
THEY SAID IT
“He’s a good player, a smart player. I learned some things from him for sure, especially being a young player coming into this league. He’s played really well in his career up to this point. … I have a lot of respect for him. Good opportunity (for him). He’s playing well this season.” –Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence on Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew
BONUS COMBO
How did the Washington Commanders cough up 40 points to the Chicago Bears? And how eager are the Atlanta Falcons to grab a slice of that?
Commanders at Falcons, 1 p.m. ET Sunday
The line: Falcons -2.5.
If you haven’t watched Atlanta rookie running back Bijan Robinson, tune in for the show. He figures to enjoy a big breakout at home against Washington.
Embattled Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder actually wasn’t bad last week in a win over Houston, throwing for 329 yards and a touchdown.
Ridder hasn’t been very good this season. He trails only Patriots quarterback Mac Jones in Turnover Worthy Plays (per Pro Football Focus) and — until last week — had not inspired much confidence.
But last week was promising.
Even more promising were the seven catches (on 11 targets!) and 87 yards for tight end Kyle Pitts.
The Commanders’ stinker against the Bears could certainly be an anomaly, but this team appeared to have too many questions to recover in 10 days’ time.
Home crowd, small point spread and emerging performances push the pick toward the Falcons in this one.
The pick: Falcons -2.5.
PROP CORNER
We’ll try to cash again on our top prop after 49ers receiver Brandon Aiyuk narrowly went over his 56.5 receiving yards number last week.
This time, we’ll tempt fate by backing the serial underachiever Kyle Pitts. The sportsbooks aren’t buying his breakout last week, but we’ll say he’s good for at least 34 receiving yards.
Prop play: Pitts over 33.5 receiving yards.
–Field Level Media