Success with our picks in recent weeks has caused perhaps a dangerous level of confidence, but you don’t question winning streaks in sports betting.
On the heels of our Week 11 “Love-in” – the emergence of Jordan Love as a useful NFL quarterback – we jumped aboard the train carrying the Atlanta Falcons and Buffalo Bills in Week 12.
Two more winning teaser bets at plus money (ATL +3.5 and the over 36.5; BUF +7.5 and the over 41.5) and we’re ready to rinse and repeat.
(Full disclosure: Our player prop of Stefon Diggs over 79 receiving yards fell 12 doggone feet short of cashing.)
Let’s go hunting.
See our primary play, along with a bonus play and a player prop below.
THE HEADLINER
Falcons at Jets, 1 p.m. ET
The line: Falcons -1.5, total 34 (FanDuel)
The Falcons stepped up and won an ugly NFC South matchup with the New Orleans Saints last week. The division title is right there for the taking.
And Desmond Ridder is the man to lead them … well, about that level of confidence.
Ridder wasn’t great last week, throwing two picks including one at the Saints 1-yard line late in the second quarter.
That said, he doesn’t need to be great because coach Arthur Smith and the offensive staff are finally letting the big dog, Bijan Robinson, eat a little more.
Robinson handled an increased workload like a champ, and he looks ready to flex again in New Jersey.
Atlanta rushed for a season-high 228 yards against New Orleans.
Ridder and Robinson – along with Robinson’s running mate Tyler Allgeier – will put enough points on the board to top New York’s struggling offense.
The Jets need to win two of their next three to even sniff a chance at offering Aaron Rodgers a meaningful snap this season.
And Tim Boyle is the man to lead them …. again, confidence level.
A defense initially heralded as top of the heap (maybe even A-number-one), is not so threatening anymore. Last week, the Miami Dolphins put up 34 points (that included a pick-6, but we digress) at the Jets.
The New York malaise is hardly the fault of the defense, of course.
Fun stat, courtesy of Action Network:
“The NFL average for series success rate is 70% on offense, which means that offenses turn a first-and-10 into another first down or touchdown 70% of the time league-wide.
“The Patriots rank 30th at 65% … the Giants are 31st at 60% and the Jets are all the way down at 58%.”
Jets coach Robert Saleh said he’s hopeful that tackle Mekhi Becton (ankle, knee) will be back Sunday after missing the Dolphins game.
The bet: Same-game parlay, Falcons teased to +3.5 with the over teased to 28.5 (odds of -110 at FanDuel).
THEY SAID IT
“We’re about to go play a really good defense in New York so (the offense) better be ready to go. … I thought the offensive line played the best game since I’ve been here (against New Orleans). We’ve invested heavily in those guys and we’ve just got to stick with our way of doing things.”
– Falcons coach Arthur Smith.
BONUS COMBO
Browns at Rams, 4:25 p.m. ET
The line: Rams -3.5, total 40 (BetMGM).
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is a Super Bowl champ, and his team is finding its footing as it returns to full health.
LA crushed the Arizona Cardinals last week, and running back Kyren Williams looks every bit a standout. Last week was his first game back from an ankle injury that cost him an entire month.
The Cleveland Browns are decimated. Injuries hit hard, claiming Deshaun Watson and backup Dorian Thompson-Robinson (concussion).
Cleveland might start veteran Joe Flacco, who was signed only 10 days ago.
If not Flacco, PJ Walker will start. He is 38th out of 41 quarterbacks in efficiency.
The Browns’ defense, led by Myles Garrett, is terrific. Unfortunately for Cleveland, Garrett suffered a shoulder injury and, best case if he plays, he will play with pain Sunday.
The play: Same-game parlay, Rams teased to -2.5 with the over teased to 30.5 (at +110 odds, per BetMGM).
PROP CORNER
This is a great spot for the continued “Bijan Breakout” experience.
The Jets defense is a little overhyped – and vulnerable to the run – while boasting a talented secondary.
Receiver Drake London may be slowed by Sauce Gardner, fine, but who was second last week behind London’s seven targets? Bijan! He caught three of his six targets for 32 yards.
Robinson also carried the ball 16 times for 91 yards, and his usage doesn’t figure to decrease this week.
Prop play: Falcons RB Bijan Robinson over 79.5 rushing+receiving yards. (-145 at DraftKings).
–Field Level Media