Nearly every talent evaluator, front office member and coach universally remain bullish on two things surrounding this year’s NBA Draft.
The San Antonio Spurs will select French prospect Victor Wembanyama with the No. 1 pick. Webanyama will become a generational talent for possessing point-guard skills in a 7-foot-3 body. Here’s a third item surrounding the Spurs and Wembanyama, however, that leave those in NBA circles feeling less certain.
Can Wembanyama instantly transform the Spurs into a playoff team?
“Way too early, and that’s even if Victor plays great,” an NBA executive from an opposing team told Sportsnaut. “I don’t think San Antonio gets in the top eight, even if Victor plays great.”
The Spurs may have cemented themselves as one of the best-run organizations. They have recent championship history (five NBA titles in 22 consecutive playoff appearances). The NBA’s all-time winningest coach has patrolled their sidelines for the past 27 seasons (Gregg Popovich). And the Spurs have set the standard for organizational excellence for their front-office synergy and player development.
Yet, San Antonio secured the chance to acquire Victor Webanyama with the No. 1 pick partly because of recent turbulence.
After the Golden State Warriors swept the Spurs in the 2017 Western Conference Finals, Kawhi Leonard played in only nine games in 2017-18 amid complications with his left quadricep muscle. With concerns Leonard would depart later as a free agent, the Spurs dealt Leonard and Danny Green in the 2018 offseason to Toronto for DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl and a protected first-round pick. That proved only good enough to lose a seven-game first-round series to the Denver Nuggets. The Spurs then missed the playoffs the following four seasons during varying growing pains with a mostly young roster. In the 2022-23 campaign, San Antonio tied with Houston for the Western Conference’s worst record (22-60).
“They’re going to have a few years to figure it out and get it right because the team is so young,” an opposing NBA head coach told Sportsnaut. “They’re basically starting from scratch. Wemby is going to be a great talent. But it’s not going to happen immediately. People are going to have patience with him and the process.”
The Spurs didn’t need as much patience after selecting Tim Duncan with the No. 1 pick in the 1997 NBA Draft. Duncan won the NBA’s Rookie of the Year award and made the first of 15 All-Star appearances in only his second season. After returning to the Western Conference semifinals during Duncan’s rookie season, the Spurs followed that up with an NBA championship in only Duncan’s second year.
That immediate success, however, coincided with different circumstances than what the Spurs have recently inherited.
In the 1996-97 season, San Antonio finished with the Western Conference’s second-to-worst record (20-62) amid unique developments. The Spurs labored to a 3-15 start while star center David Robinson nursed a back injury. As general manager, Popovich then fired Bob Hill as head coach before taking over the team’s head-coaching duties. After returning for six games, Robinson broke his left foot and missed the rest of the season. So did shooting specialist Chuck Person to heal his surgically repaired back.
Once Duncan arrived, he played with a fully healthy Robinson to form the “Twin Towers.” Duncan joined a Spurs team that had a veteran forward (Sean Elliott), point guard (Avery Johnson) and shooting guard (Vinny Del Negro). And Duncan faced a reduced learning curve after starring for four seasons at Wake Forest.
Victor Wembanyama ‘should have an impact right away’
As for Victor Wembanyama? Talent evaluators consider his game nearly fully polished after excelling professionally with Nanterre 92 (2019-21), ASVEL (2021-2022) and Metropolitans 92 (2022-23). Ryan Blake, a longtime NBA consultant, projected Wembanyama as showing traces of Kevin Durant’s prolific scoring and Nikola Jokic’s passing. Another NBA evaluator likened Wembanyama’s defensive presence as a rim protector to Rudy Gobert, a three-time Defensive Player of the Year.
“He should have an impact right away,” Blake told Sportsnaut. “I’m not saying he’ll dominate. But he should be scoring, rebounding and blocking shots. He’ll make plays and fit into the culture right away.”
Expect a seamless plug-and-play experience with Wembanyama. Don’t expect the same thing for the rest of the Spurs, though.
“It would be unfair to those guys, even with Pop as their coach,” an NBA executive said. “If they get into the top eight, then they have done other things this summer that is a win. It has nothing to do with just adding Victor.”
It remains to be seen how the Spurs construct the rest of their roster around him. The Spurs currently have 11 players on their team and could have up to $43.3 million in cap space, including a $7.6 million trade exception. Regardless of whether the Spurs add any established veterans or focus on simply developing their young players, an opposing team’s head coach predicted, “I would bet they develop this guy 100% the right way.”
That’s partly because the Spurs have had success both with managing a well-known star (Duncan) and turning unknown players into key contributors (Manu Ginobili at No. 57 in 1999; Tony Parker at No. 28 in 2001). Talent evaluators predicted Wembanyama’s partnership with the Spurs will blossom because of some of his mannerisms that mirror Duncan’s.
Wembanyama appears more devoted toward his craft than basking in the spotlight. He seems more concerned about elevating his teammates than ensuring he receives most of the shots and credit. He has shown receptiveness to coaching than just expecting constant praise.
Although Duncan doesn’t have an official role with the Spurs, don’t be surprised if he embraces Victor Wembanyama in a mentorship role. Though Duncan has helpful perspective to share as a five-time NBA champion and 15-time All-Star during a Hall-of-Fame career, Wembanyama’s path will prove different for reasons beyond their different skillsets.
“Tim’s adjustments was learning the pace of the game, the speed of the game and the physicality,” an opposing team’s NBA executive said about Duncan. “But it wasn’t like he wasn’t able to compete every night. At that time that Tim was in the lead, nobody worried about load management.”
Will load management be a factor for Victor Wembanyama?
The Spurs didn’t limit Duncan’s workload until his third season. He missed the final four games of the 1999-2000 season after tearing a lateral meniscus in his left knee. Amid concerns that Duncan’s knee could experience long-term damage, the Spurs limited Duncan only to one game in the Spurs’ first-round series loss to the Phoenix Suns.
Those around the NBA wonder to what extent the Spurs will limit Victor Wembanyama’s workload both during summer league and throughout his rookie season.
“Victor’s body is going to be one where they’re going to be very careful with. I would assume they’re not going to throw him out there for 82 games,” an opposing team’s executive said. “This is a long-term play. He’s got to build up his body. I think he’s going to be terrific. The only thing that could derail him are his lower leg injuries.”
Talent evaluators don’t believe that Wembanyama will have any long-term durability concerns, though. They just expect it will take time for him to fully adapt to a more physical game, while adding more muscle on his listed 209-pound frame. One front office executive rojected it will take Wembanyama about three years to adapt fully to that challenge. Given that the Spurs have tried to handle their players with care in recent years, expect them to take a cautious approach with Wembanyama.
Will that be enough to help the Spurs to the NBA playoffs during his first season just as Duncan experienced? Maybe not. Still, those issues aren’t significant enough to derail Wembanyama’s chances to win the NBA’s rookie of the year award, let alone showcase his immediate value. Because Victor Wembanyama has become so polished as a playmaker, versatile scorer and defender, talent evaluators believe he will spend his rookie season showing more of what he can do than becoming limited with what he can’t do.
“In so many drafts, you don’t know how that guy is going to adapt or how he’s going to be. But with this guy, he’s at a different level,” Blake said. “This guy’s special. This is the guy.”
Mark Medina is an NBA Insider for Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter and on Instagram.