5 Most Disappointing MLB Teams of the 2026 Season So Far

The honeymoon phase of the 2026 MLB season is officially over. With mid-June upon us, the “small sample size” excuses have expired, and front offices are starting down some harsh realities. While a few underdog clubs are surging, several preseason heavyweights and World Series hopefuls are crashing hard. By looking past the traditional standings and diving into the underlying metrics, we can separate the teams dealing with bad luck from the teams just playing bad baseball. Here are the five most disappointing MLB teams so far this year

Houston Astros (33-40)

• The Expectation: Another deep October run and AL West dominance
• The Reality: Seven games under .500 and four games back of the Seattle Mariners

Their disappointment comes from the pitching. Their pitching staff has the third-worst FIP and second-worst xFIP, indicating that this lack of production is not just bad luck. However, they have some hope emerging with key pitchers returning from the IL. Josh Hader, their star closer, returned June 2nd and Hunter Brown, their ace and a preseason Cy Young candidate, set to return June 16th. Even with their struggles pitching, the offense has cemented itself as just above average with a 103 wRC+ and the Astros still have a clear shot at the division with the Mariners only one game above .500.

New York Mets (32-39)

• The Expectation: Fighting for an NL East Crown or at worst a top Wild Card spot.
• The Reality: Seven games under .500 and 14 games back of the Braves

While one of their major off-season trades has paid off well (Freddy Peralta), their other moves have not gone as well. Bo Bichette has been terrible with the bat, coming from an 86th percentile Batting Run Value in 2025 to an abysmal 8th percentile in 2026. While Marcus Semien’s expectations with the bat were low, he was supposed to be a good fielder. But, in 2026 his Fielding Run Value has dropped from 82nd percentile to 28th percentile. Their final major acquisition, Luis Robert Jr, has been injured since April 30th with a lumbar spine disc herniation. This injury has forced the Mets to call up prospects AJ Ewing and Nick Morabito who have shown some promise to perform at the Major League level.

Toronto Blue Jays (34-38)

• The Expectation: Finally put it all together to win the AL East and have a chance to make it back to the World Series.
• The Reality: Four games under .500 and ten games back of the Yankees

The Blue Jays truly haven’t been bad by any means just not good. Toronto’s pitching staff has been solid, ranking in the top third of the league for FIP and xFIP, but their batting has been below average with a 96 wRC+. Vlad Guerrero Jr has been a big culprit in the below average hitting. A 52nd percentile Batting Run Value from your perennial all-star first baseman is not what you want to see. Louis Varland has been their shocking bright spot and is putting together the best relief season this year.

San Francisco Giants (29-43)

• The Expectation: Challenging the Dodgers and Padres for the NL West crown.
• The Reality: 14 games below .500 and 16 games back of the Dodgers.

The Tony Vitello experiment has not gone well for the Giants as they sit in fourth place in the NL West with a -56 run differential. Rafael Devers has looked awful for them with a 10th percentile Batting Run Value. Their pitching, save for the past three Logan Webb games, has not shown much promise with a fifth-worst pitching fWAR. While this team was not expected to make a deep playoff run, or a playoff run at all, they were expected to be competitive with a young, fiery coach and strong veteran hitting talent.

Texas Rangers (35-36)

• The Expectation: Return to their 2023 World Series champion form with an elite rotation.
• The Reality: One game below .500 and one game back of the Mariners.

The Rangers have three starters taken within the first three picks of the draft: MacKenzie Gore, Kumar Rocker, and Jack Leiter. With this top draft talent and veterans Jacob DeGrom and Nathan Eovaldi, they should have a FIP better than 15th best. Their hitting was never good, so with below-expected pitching performance, the team has been disappointing.

What’s Next?

The clock is ticking on the 2026 season, and the late-July trade deadline is looming large. For these five underachieving clubs, the next few weeks are do-or-die. If these teams don’t pick up momentum, expect these front offices to pivot and become sellers at the deadline.