Chael Sonnen does not believe fans will ever see a third fight between Conor McGregor and Nate Diaz.

Speaking with MMA Junkie, Sonnen assessed the current state of what has been one of MMA’s most anticipated trilogies for nearly a decade and concluded that the circumstances surrounding both fighters make it increasingly unlikely the rubber match ever gets made.

The conversation follows Diaz’s recent revelation that he was in negotiations with the UFC to return, with a trilogy fight against McGregor being a focal point of those discussions. Diaz passed on the opportunity, saying he wanted to fight Charles Oliveira for the BMF title instead, and ultimately accepted a fight against Mike Perry for May 16 on Netflix.

Diaz added his reason for passing on McGregor was that he only wants the trilogy when both men are on the rise, not when one of them is on the way out.

Chael Sonnen Says Nate Diaz Is Not Bluffing

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“Nate Diaz lives by a code, and you’re not going to get around it,” Sonnen said. “You’re not going to bribe him, you’re not going to pressure him. He lives by a code. It just gets complicated, but this is not a negotiation tactic by him. He’s serious when he says, ‘I don’t want to fight Conor, Conor’s been out for five years, and by the way, he’s got a leg injury. Let him get back, get a win, and then I’ll come in.’

“He wants to fight Charles Oliveira. Nobody wants to fight Charles Oliveira. Nate is serious,” he added. “And it’s not just about Charles. It’s not just the jiu-jitsu clash there. That’s the belt that escaped him. That BMF belt means something to him, and Charles happens to be the guy wearing it. Nate is being sincere. Could he lose that fight to Mike Perry? Could UFC lose interest in that over time? Of course. But that’s not going to change Nate’s mind.”

Diaz and McGregor split their two-fight series in 2016, with Diaz handing McGregor his first UFC loss at UFC 196 before losing the rematch via majority decision at UFC 202. The unresolved nature of that rivalry has kept speculation about a third fight alive for the better part of a decade, but the timelines of both men are pulling in opposite directions.

Chael Sonnen Predicts Conor McGregor Has One UFC Fight Left

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Jul 10, 2021; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Conor McGregor fights Dustin Poirier during UFC 264 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

On the McGregor side of the equation, there is momentum building behind a comeback fight at UFC 329 on July 11 in Las Vegas, which would mark almost exactly five years since he last competed against Dustin Poirier at UFC 264 and suffered a broken leg.

Max Holloway has emerged as a potential opponent for that return. McGregor currently has two fights remaining on his deal, barring a new contract, putting him on a timeline that may not align with where Diaz is headed. Sonnen sees McGregor having a limited runway left, regardless of what he says publicly.

“My guess on Conor is we’re going to get him one more, and I think we could really enjoy it,” Sonnen said. “Now, if you speak to Conor, and I did, you’re going to get him a minimum of three more times. He’s going to do a couple of fights and go boxing. I think we’re going to get Conor for one more fight. I think we’re probably going to miss out on the trilogy. Sadly.”