The Toronto Blue Jays’ immediate future looks bleak after Vladimir Guerrero Jr. rejected their contract extension at the beginning of spring training.
The four-time All-Star will enter free agency after this season, and the Blue Jays risk letting their franchise cornerstone walk away for nothing in return.
Toronto’s front office miscalculated by neither securing a long-term deal earlier in Guerrero’s career nor trading him last season when his value could have returned significant assets to reshape the franchise.
Now, any potential deadline trade would yield substantially less value than what was possible just a year ago.
As Guerrero approaches the open market, speculation centers on his potential contract value. One top MLB insider has provided a staggering estimate that approaches Juan Soto’s record-breaking $765 million deal with the New York Mets.
MLB insider: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will command $600 million or more in free agency
MLB insider Jon Heyman believes the bidding for Guerrero will start at an eye-popping figure.
“With Soto at $765 million, I think it’s probably going to have to be in the sixes to sign him. I think at probably $600 million-plus to have gotten it done,” Heyman stated.
Such valuation isn’t surprising given Guerrero’s career trajectory. Since his breakout 2021 MVP-runner-up season when he hit 48 home runs with a 1.002 OPS, Guerrero has established himself as one of baseball’s premier power hitters. His consistent production, durability (playing 160-plus games in multiple seasons), and age (just 26 when he hits free agency) make him an exceptional free agent commodity.
Guerrero has confirmed the Blue Jays weren’t close to his asking price during extension negotiations.
“The Blue Jays did not get there, obviously,” Heyman explained. “I think they stepped out. They offered more than they wanted to offer. They didn’t offer enough, obviously, or he would be signed. He will be a free agent — there is no question about that.”
This failed negotiation continues a troubling pattern for Toronto’s front office, which has struggled to land marquee free agents in recent years. Heyman noted that the Blue Jays “always seem to be a little bit behind,” referencing their unsuccessful pursuits of Soto and Shohei Ohtani despite aggressive offers.
The impending exodus may not stop with Guerrero. Fellow All-Star Bo Bichette also enters his walk year, and he has confirmed the organization has yet to approach him about an extension.
If this is indeed Guerrero’s final season in Toronto, he’ll leave as one of the greatest players in franchise history. Entering 2025, his resume includes 160 home runs, an .863 OPS, 137 OPS+, and 21.5 bWAR across six seasons — with his prime years still ahead of him.
Related: 6 Trade Destinations for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. After Toronto Blue Jays Extension Talks Collapse
