By now, you’ve read the reports, rumors, opinions, and thoughts about the visual of Tom Brady in Las Vegas wearing the Silver and Black.
Let’s put this out in front. He’s not going to sign with the Las Vegas Raiders.
There are three major reasons why it won’t happen. Before we delve into why Brady won’t join the Raiders in Las Vegas, let’s go through ESPN Adam Schefter’s report on the morning of Super LIV.
According to Schefter, the Raiders are prepared to pursue Brady on the open market. Pay attention to the wording of the report. Right now, it’s a one-way street in terms of interest. Brady hasn’t listed or publicly talked about any particular free-agent destinations.
In their current state, the Raiders sound like an intriguing option for Brady. He may sit at the table to hear owner Mark Davis, head coach Jon Gruden and general manager Mike Mayock’s recruiting pitch out of respect, but the six-time Super Bowl champion will realize Vegas isn’t for him.
Secondly, the New England Patriots want a swift decision, whereas Brady would prefer a thorough approach and engage with other teams.
“New England is expected to want to have a decision made well before the free-agent signing period begins March 18,” Schefter wrote. “But Brady also has said he is “open-minded” about the free-agent process, and other teams are expected to explore the possibility of signing him, according to sources.”
It’s important to note the timeline on a decision. If Brady commits about a month before the draft, he’d have to trust in his team’s plans for April. There’s one issue. The selection process can be unpredictable. The 42-year-old signal-caller will need to see a good fit with a club before the incoming rookie class joins the league.
In their current state, the Raiders sound like an intriguing option for Brady. He may sit at the table to hear owner Mark Davis, head coach Jon Gruden and general manager Mike Mayock’s recruiting pitch out of respect, but the six-time Super Bowl champion will realize Vegas isn’t for him.
Brady will take his time, but he’ll likely come to an agreement with a team before the draft so his front office can adjust its big board accordingly.
At the top of Brady’s priorities, he wants to play with playmakers. Last year, the Patriots scrambled to acquire Mohamed Sanu before the deadline for a talent boost at wide receiver. The trade with the Atlanta Falcons fell flat. The 30-year-old wideout logged 26 receptions for 207 yards and a touchdown.
Last offseason, tight end Rob Gronkowski retired. Rookie first-rounder N’Keal Harry started the season on injured reserve because of a groin injury. Fellow first-year wideout Jakobi Meyers recorded just 26 receptions for 359 yards in 15 games despite a strong preseason showing, leading the league in receiving yards (253). New England fielded the 18th-ranked ground attack.
So, of course, Brady wants to go into the 2020 season with multiple high-end playmakers on offense.
According to Football Outsiders, the Raiders offensive line ranked fifth in run blocking and sixth in pass protection this past season. Running back Josh Jacobs proved he can carry the majority load after sharing touches through three years at Alabama. Tight end Darren Waller had a breakout 2019 term, logging 90 receptions for 1,145 yards and three touchdowns.
There’s one issue. Which wide receiver can Brady depend on as his go-to guy? In New England, he had Julian Edelman for a decade. They needed four seasons to click on another level. The wideout had 714 receiving yards and four touchdowns between the 2009 and 2012 campaigns.
Tyrell Williams should have a better year if he fully recovers from plantar fasciitis, but the fifth-year veteran has been a decent No. 2 option for most of his career with only one 50-plus catch season on his resume.
Rookie fifth-rounder Hunter Renfrow exceeded expectations, recording 49 receptions for 605 yards and four touchdowns, but he’s not capable of taking over a game with consistency out of the slot at this stage in his career. Brady doesn’t have much time to wait.
More importantly, who’s the red-zone threat? Waller hauled in three touchdown receptions this past season. Williams led the team with six and five of them came in the first eight weeks.
Lastly, NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport noted the Los Angeles Chargers would be interested in Brady on the day of Super Bowl LIV:
If Brady prioritizes weapons, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams along with Hunter Henry, Austin Ekeler or Melvin Gordon sound like a better set of pass-catching options if two of the last three players re-sign with the team. Despite questions about Los Angeles’ offensive line, the group ranked ninth in pass protection, per Football Outsiders.
In terms of wide receiver weapons, the Raiders don’t have an alluring group that generates a ton of excitement. If defenses limit Waller, what’s plan B in the passing attack?
This aspect is overlooked and deserves a little more attention. Excluding the 2008 campaign because of a torn ACL and MCL, Brady has played with top-10 scoring defenses in 15 out of 18 seasons in New England. None of those units have ranked lower than 17th:
On the flip side, the Raiders haven’t fielded a scoring defense ranked 17th or higher since 2002.
In New England, Brady has been spoiled with defenses that keep opponents out of the end zone, which takes the pressure of the offense. A solid defense that forces three-and-outs or turns the field over also leads to more offensive possessions.
Brady wouldn’t enjoy the same luxuries in Vegas. The Raiders have struggled to field a decent defense let alone a unit that ranks top 10 in scoring.
Playing in the same division as Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, Brady should want no parts of a scoring shootout with him twice a year at 43 years old. He needs a solid ground attack, which the Raiders have at the moment, and a defense that can come up with crucial stops—something the Silver and Black haven’t done with consistency in nearly two decades.
Brady made a subtle statement, but it’s probably the biggest bulletin point on his free-agency checklist. As a six-time Super Bowl champion, he’s accustomed to preparing for and playing in the postseason.
As a primary starter, Brady has missed the playoffs once—in 2002 when the Patriots went 9-7. Keep in mind, he only played one game in 2008—the other campaign in which New England missed the postseason at 11-5.
In an Instagram story, Brady had a text overlay that sent a clear message. “I’m not wearing a blazer to the Super Bowl next year.”
At Hard Stadium in Miami Gardens before Super Bowl LIV, Brady wore a blazer as one of the NFL’s all-time top 100 player honorees. Clearly, he’d prefer to play in February, which indicates his potential lean toward a contender.
Let’s be honest. The Raiders are still a rebuilding team—one that exceeded expectations early in the 2019 season (6-4) and fell apart late in the year (1-5).
We’re going into Year 3 of Gruden’s roster reconstruction with plenty of inexperienced players set to take big steps, but they’re not established yet. One season doesn’t catapult anyone to stardom—consistency and sustainability do.
Going into his age-43 season, Brady justifiably wants help around him. For the best assistance, it’s far more assuring to team up with veterans who’ve also been there and done that. The Raiders are still trying to establish a winning culture and close football games.
Since the 2002-03 campaign, the Raiders have one winning season and zero division titles. In order to flip the Silver and Black’s fortunes, Brady would need to arrive with multiple players to change a not-so-favorable recent history.
If Brady wants to trade in his blazer for a game-day jersey next February in Tampa, Florida, he’ll likely consider teams already in playoff contention or clubs that are legitimately a quarterback away from a long playoff run. Headed to Vegas, the Raiders need playmakers on every level of their defense and a lead wideout.
The photo above generated plenty of likes and retweets on Twitter. While it’s fun to speculate, the exchanged smiles between Brady and Davis mean very little—at least from the quarterback’s side of the equation.
Based on Schefter’s report, we know the Raiders want Brady, but so will nearly half the league. As the 42-year-old signal-caller goes through his visits, he’ll consider the two W’s: weapons and winning. The Silver and Black are ok in one area and deficient in the other over the last few seasons.
Once the competition for Brady ramps up, New England is the likely landing spot. Then again, don’t rule out a playoff team that’s willing to dump its quarterback for the most accomplished signal-caller in the game.
In the big picture, if Brady says “thanks but no thanks” to the Raiders, that’s probably best for the franchise’s direction. With an increasing number of young, athletic quarterbacks on the rise, Gruden and Mayock need to consider the same type of player if Derek Carr isn’t their guy.
At least we can say Carr improved from Year 1 to 2 under Gruden—something detractors don’t like to admit in debates. Brady is coming off one of his worst seasons, completing 60.8 percent of his passes with career lows in QBR (52.5) and touchdown rate (3.9).
Don’t let the flash from Brady’s six rings fool you. The 42-year-old has shown a clear decline, which is why Raiders fans shouldn’t feel disappointed when he chooses to sign elsewhere or return to New England.