Spring training is right around the corner, which means the 2017 MLB season will be here before we know it. What can we all expect to see on the diamond this year?
Which long suffering teams are heading in the right direction? What big name acquisition is in danger of becoming a huge bust? What big names might be traded? Who can we expect to see win some of baseball’s top awards?
What bold predictions can we make for the 2017 MLB season?
We start with the future of the game’s best player.
1. Mike Trout plays his last game with the Los Angeles Angels
It seems crazy to even think about. Trout is the game’s best player and won’t even turn 26 until August. How can the Halos even think about trading such a talent?
The answer is simple. Trout is really the only good thing this team has going for it.
Trading Trout would be painful. But if the Angels really want to improve and become a consistent playoff contender in the near future, it’s 100-percent necessary.
Los Angeles may have the worst overall situation in baseball. In terms of Major League talent, only a few teams are worse. In terms of what’s coming up from the farm system, nobody is worse. That’s a bad combination and it has to change.
Other than Trout, the Halos really have only a few players that would be appealing to a contender. Those guys would land some decent pieces but nothing that would move the needle too much. Additionally, trading players like Kole Calhoun, Andrelton Simmons, Matt Shoemaker and Garrett Richards would only make Trout’s situation in Anaheim worse.
If the Angels decide to pull the trigger on a Trout trade, they could get potentially 4-5 top tier prospects that could form a nucleus for the future. They need to do that. Otherwise, the fans in Anaheim will get to see a lot of Trout surrounded by mediocre (or worse) talent for a long time.
A trade could happen around the trade deadline, but the best time would probably be after the season. No matter what, the 2017 season should be Trout’s last in an Angel uniform. As the team struggles through another year, expect the front office to realize that.
2. Seattle Mariners break MLB’s longest postseason drought
The Mariners haven’t reached the playoffs since 2001. That’s the longest such drought in baseball by two years. Look for it to end in 2017.
Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano anchor an offense that again figures to be one of the better in the American League. They’ll be aided by Kyle Seager as well as sneaky new additions Jarrod Dyson, Jean Segura and Danny Valencia.
Felix Hernandez may not be the pitcher that he once was, but he remains a legitimate ace. Hisashi Iwakuma, James Paxton, Drew Smyly and Yovani Gallardo round out a very solid starting rotation. Closer Edwin Diaz had a huge year in 2016, as well. He posted a 2.79 ERA and struck out more than 15 hitters per nine innings. The bullpen will only be better with him anchoring it for a full year.
The American League West is a strong division at the top. In includes a team that may well be the American League’s best (more on that later).
But the Mariners are deep in talent, as well. They should also rack up plenty of wins against the Angels and Oakland Athletics. If nothing else, Seattle figures to be good enough to be one of the junior circuit’s two wild card teams.
3. Noah Syndergaard wins his first (but not last) NL Cy Young Award
Syndergaard posted a strong rookie season for the New York Mets in 2015 but took a big step forward in 2016. In 183.2 innings, he posted a 2.60 ERA, 1.149 WHIP, 218 strikeouts and a league best 2.29 FIP.
We also have to remember that Syndergaard is only 24. As such, the Mets have been rather conservative in their use of him. Now that Syndergaard is in his third year, look for the reigns to be taken off of him more. That’s going to be bad news for opposing hitters.
His stuff has always been Cy Young caliber. If Syndergaard is allowed to pitch 200 or more innings, it will lead to winning the award.
The scary thing about Syndergaard is that it’s not going to stop there.
While his game is more mature than most pitchers his age, he’s still learning how to pitch at the Major League level. So, while we’re saying that 2017 will be Syndergaard’s first Cy Young Award, get used to seeing him at the end of season award shows. It won’t be his last.
4. The Tigers will trade Justin Verlander
At some point in 2017, the Tigers are going to realize how far they are from being a real contender in the American League. When that day comes, they’ll have to embrace a rebuild. Realistically, Verlander is too old to be a part of that. He’s acknowledged that himself.
“Would it have been upsetting for me if we started trading away everybody?” Verlander inquired on MLB Network radio in January (H/T Anthony Fenech, Detroit Free Press) before answering the question. “I’m too old to be part of a rebuilding process.”
Unfortunately, while Detroit didn’t go into rebuilding mode, it also didn’t do a lot to improve in the offseason. The Tigers are well behind the Cleveland Indians in the American League Central. Cleveland has arguably the American League’s best starting rotation, a phenomenal bullpen and an already strong offense that replaced Mike Napoli with Edwin Encarnacion.
Age is also not an ally of Detroit. Victor Martinez is 38. Miguel Cabrera will turn 34 early in the year.
So, while the Tigers didn’t rebuild in the offseason, look for the need to rebuild to become more of a reality in 2017. Verlander has a no trade clause (and 10/5 rights, to boot) but as he said, he’s too old to rebuild.
That certainly makes it more likely that he’d waive his no trade clause and accept a deal to a contender.
5. Gary Sanchez wins American League MVP
Defensive alignment has become a more prevalent part of Major League Baseball over the last several seasons. But many times in 2016, the defensive alignment didn’t make any difference when Sanchez hit the ball.
Sanchez exploded in 2016, hitting 20 home runs in 201 at-bats, or a home run per every 10.05 at-bats for the New York Yankees.
How does that translate to a full season’s worth of at-bats? Catchers tend to get more days off than most positions, but Buster Posey had 539 at-bats in 2016. That home run rate over that many at-bats would equal roughly 54 bombs.
Now, we’re not necessarily expecting that again, but Sanchez has prolific power. That’s undeniable. The single season record for home runs as a catcher is Javy Lopez, who hit 42 in 2003. If New York doesn’t give Sanchez too many games at DH, that record will be in serious jeopardy.
That kind of power over a full season in a market like New York will get him a lot of attention. On top of that, remember that catcher is a premium defensive position. Anyone putting up prolific offensive numbers as a catcher will get immense MVP consideration. That’s what we expect from Sanchez in 2017.
6. Colorado Rockies have a winning season
The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants have had a monopoly on the National League West for a while. One of the two has won the division in each of the last five seasons. In all but one of those years, the two teams finished first and second in the standings. As good as those teams have been, they’ve been aided by a consistently terrible division. None of the other three NL West teams have enjoyed a winning season since 2011.
Expect Los Angeles and San Francisco to reign atop the division again. But Colorado won’t make it quite so easy in 2017.
Offense has never been a problem for the Rockies. It won’t be in 2017, either. Nolan Arenado is the headline grabber but the lineup also features Carlos Gonzalez, Trevor Story, Ian Desmond, Charlie Blackmon and DJ LeMahieu. Pitching to that group is going to be a chore.
The starting rotation is a question mark. But with Adam Ottavino and the newly acquired Greg Holland, the bullpen can mask a lot of those problem. On top of that, new manager Bud Black had a knack for getting the most out of his pitchers with the San Diego Padres. Coors Field is a different animal, but if anyone can find guys to work through that, it’s him.
It’s unlikely that any of that will be good enough to earn a playoff spot, but a winning record would be quite an achievement for Colorado. Since their last winning season in 2010, the Rockies have had posted MLB’s third worst record and the worst in the National League.
But now, things are heading in the right direction. Competing with the Dodgers and Giants isn’t likely this year, but it’s not an unrealistic possibility, either. Look for that to show with a vastly improved record.
7. The Atlanta Braves will make the playoffs
Admittedly, the last three seasons have brought very little reason to think that a winning record is in the cards for 2017, let alone a playoff spot. So, why the optimism?
Well, let’s break the 2016 season down into two parts.
For the record, since the inception of the second wild card spot in 2012, 93-69 would have been good enough to earn a Wild Card spot or win the National League East in each year.
Granted, it would normally be crazy to weigh what happened in 42 games over what happened in 119. But Dansby Swanson debuted on August 17. That skews things towards the later, smaller sample.
The 2015 No. 1 overall pick was darn impressive in 2016. Making the jump from AA to the majors, he slashed at .302/.361/.442 with 20 runs scored, three homers, 17 RBI and three steals in 129 at-bats. How good can he be over a full season with some MLB experience under his belt?
Additionally, Matt Kemp will be in Atlanta for a full season. Sean Rodriguez isn’t a superstar, but he’s a nice role player who has a knack for playing on teams that win. Bartolo Colon is certainly not a Cy Young contender anymore, but he’s a capable pitcher who will bring stability to the rotation behind ace Julio Teheran
The National League East (and the National League in general) is no cakewalk. Given the last three years, a playoff spot may seem crazy. But looking at the trajectory of the Braves, October baseball is well within the realm of possibility.
8. Chris Sale struggles in Boston debut
On paper, Sale was a good acquisition for the Boston Red Sox. Sale didn’t come cheap, but if his stats from Chicago go with him to Boston, the Red Sox should have the American League’s best starting rotation.
Still, when we look at this a little further, it doesn’t feel like a match made in heaven.
Sale couldn’t get along well with the front office in Chicago. While Boston has enjoyed a great deal of success over the last decade plus, it’s front office hasn’t always acted great. We can’t forget the smear campaigns of Terry Francona and Bobby Valentine at the end of their tenures with the Red Sox. Sale is a guy who has taken a knife to his team’s uniforms for the day and didn’t seem terribly remorseful about it. What kind of stories will come out if he doesn’t get along well with people in Boston?
How will he respond to the intense media? Make no mistake, Chicago isn’t exactly a small market. But the White Sox are probably the least followed of all of The Windy City’s professional teams. The Red Sox, meanwhile, are always front and center in Boston.
There’s a lot about this to be skeptical about. If Sale struggles, it’s unlikely that anyone will treat it as just a bad year. David Price was heavily scrutinized throughout 2016, and he doesn’t have anywhere near Sale’s baggage.
Again, the fit with Sale looks good on paper, but it seems more potentially problematic than that. If nothing else, watch it closely through the year.
9. The Astros will win the American League pennant
Houston stumbled out of the blocks in 2016, going 7-17 in April. Realistically, that kept the Astros out of playoff contention, but they did recover well. From May 1 on, Houston went 77-61, which is a 90-72 pace for a full season.
The outfield isn’t quite as strong, but it’s certainly not a weakness. That’s led by George Springer, but Josh Reddick and Nori Aoki won’t weigh anyone down on the corners.
Top to bottom, Dallas Keuchel, Colin McHugh, Lance McCullers, Charlie Morton, and Mike Fiers could be the American League’s best rotation. Luke Gregerson and Ken Giles are more than competent at closing out games.
Look for the Astros to battle it out with the Indians and Red Sox for American League supremacy. But in the end, the edge goes to Houston.
10. The Chicago Cubs will repeat as champions
For the first time since 1909, the Cubs enter a season as World Series champions.
We don’t expect them to wait that long again.
Chicago again has baseball’s best roster. The Cubs’ main problem in 2016 was finding playing time for all of their stars and elite prospects. With the return of Kyle Schwarber, that “problem” isn’t going away any time soon.
The loss of Aroldis Chapman will hurt the bullpen, but that was largely offset by the addition of Wade Davis. In fact, with the acquisitions of Davis and Koji Uehara and the returning Mike Montgomery, the Cubs employ the man who’s thrown the last pitch in three of the last four World Series. So, Chicago is well equipped for pressure packed situations.
No team has repeated as World Series champ since the 1998-2000 Yankees. No National League team has done so since the 1975-1976 Cincinnati Reds. But the Cubs are in better position than the Red Sox and Giants were in after their breakthroughs in 2004 and 2010, respectively. Both of those teams won two more World Series in relatively short order.
The biggest real problem for Chicago in 2016 was getting over a long standing barrier. Now that’s no longer an issue. The Cubs know that they can win. Expect to see Chicago end 2017 the same way it ended 2016, on top of the MLB world.