The Detroit Lions are one of the best feel-good stories in the NFL this season, having won their first playoff game in 33 years. Detroit is buzzing with Super Bowl aspirations for coach Dan Campbell’s team, who hosts the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the divisional round of the playoffs on Sunday.
While Detroit is the sentimental favorite to end its championship drought, which dates back to 1957, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers certainly aren’t lying down and want to create their own feel-good story.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers played inspired football on both sides of the ball in eliminating the reigning NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles, 32-9, in the Wild Card round. But heading to Detroit as a 6.5 underdog, they’re going to have to play their best football if they want to make it to the NFC Championship game for the first time since 2020 when Tom Brady led them to their second Super Bowl title.
What will the Buccaneers have to do to shock the world and upset the Lions at Ford Field? Let’s look at three things that must happen to make that a reality for coach Todd Bowles and his Tampa team.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers must pressure Jared Goff — all day
Jared Goff has been stellar most of the season for the Detroit Lions but has shown signs of struggling when faced with pressure from opposing defenses. It’s essential for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense, known for its ability to apply pressure on quarterbacks, to take advantage of this weakness. Bowles, as he did against the Eagles, will need to increase blitzes and change looks often to disrupt Goff’s rhythm to force him into making mistakes. That’s easier said than done.
Goff is coming off a win over the Rams by going 21-of-21 on pass attempts when not pressured, and just 1-of-6 on attempts where he was pressured. In 2023, Goff completed nearly 75% of his passes in a clean pocket, and just over 51% when pressured. It’s been a continued weakness for the him, and the Bucs defense has been the best so far in the postseason allowing just 274 yards in offense through the first round. For the Buccaneers to upset the Lions, they’re going to need a similar performance as they had against the Eagles to leave Motown victorious.
Baker Mayfield needs to continue positive momentum
Baker Mayfield has been another one of the great stories in the NFL this season. Joining the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on a one-year deal, he’s in the running for the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award.
Mayfield showcased his ability to lead the Bucs offense to the win against the Eagles by throwing for 337 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. Having his best year as a pro, after playing with three different teams in 2022, he beat the Lions Mayfield, and the Bucs offense must continue their positive momentum and move the ball and score.
The game plan against Detroit must include plays designed to allow Mayfield to combine big high-percentage opportunities mixed with vertical chances too. The receiving corps has had issues with drops all season, and despite the steady presence of Mike Evans, can’t afford to make those mistakes as they did against Philadelphia. For Mayfield to win the game, they need to be reliable options and convert when he puts it on the money.
Win field position and on special teams
While field position is vital in every NFL game, for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to slow down the Lions in Detroit, they’re going to have to win this battle. In playoff games, special teams can often be a game changer and It’s essential for Bowles’ team not to overlook the importance of them in this game.
In 2023, the Bucs ranked 19th in special teams, according to Rick Gosselin’s annual special teams ratings, with the Lions coming in at 20th. Effective punting, kick return, and coverage units will give the Buccaneers an edge. Both kickers, Chase McLaughlin for Tampa and Michael Badgley for Detroit, are highly accurate and must convert when given opportunities. Since Ford Field is a dome, the weather won’t factor. Being prepared for a field position battle and capitalizing on any team’s opportunities will help swing momentum in favor of the Buccaneers
An intangible: The Buccaneers play well on the road
The Lions certainly present a massive challenge for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as they moved to 7-2 at home this season with their Wild Card round win over the Rams. It’s worth noting the Buccaneers have a respectable 5-4 road record this season showing they can compete effectively on the road.
The Lions may have an edge in their favor being at home and a solid favorite, but as we’ve seen time and time again, in the playoffs games often have a way of defying expectations. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has come into the playoffs play mean and fast. If they can deliver in all three of these areas, they can shock the world and get back to the NFC Championship game with Mayfield leading the way.