As the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs prepare to meet in Super Bowl LVIII, the primary betting lines established after the Jan. 28 conference title games have largely held up.
BetMGM is similar to most major sportsbooks, listing the 49ers as a two-point favorite. The game total, which opened at 47, has risen only a half-point in 10 days.
The big players holding the sharp money frequently wait to see the crush of public money on Super Bowl Sunday and react accordingly, finding value in the adjusted numbers.
We can’t wait, so we are offering our three best Super Bowl prop bets.
TRENDS
BetRivers shows only 30 percent of the money and 27 percent of the tickets on the 49ers moneyline, and 28 percent of money and tickets on the Niners spread.
People can’t quit believing in Patrick Mahomes.
More from BetRivers:
Mahomes is 14-3 straight up and 12-5 against the spread (ATS) as a starter in playoff games.
For his career, he is 10-3 straight up and 11-1-1 ATS as an underdog.
Playing the total? It’s been bet up to 47.5, but …
Eleven of the 49ers’ past 14 postseason games have gone under the total points line. Six of the Chiefs’ past eight games have gone under the total points line.
Finally, still thinking about betting against Mahomes? The Chiefs have covered the spread in five straight games.
Side note: We’re ignoring strange props such as these (available at BetOnline):
How many patties will be on Andy Reid’s postgame burger?
Over/Under 1.5
How many planes will be seen during the national anthem flyover?
Over/Under 4.5
Our three best stabs at the props menu keep things pretty football-centric.
PROP BET 1
Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers wide receiver over/under 12.5 yards with his first reception.
San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy doesn’t need a safety-valve target so much as he needs a guy who catches intermediate routes well.
In his past three games, Aiyuk has nine catches for 125 yards (13.9 yards per catch). In the two games prior to that, he averaged 16.3 and 18.8 yards per catch.
The Chiefs will plan to stop Deebo Samuel’s runs and receptions as well as wheel routes to Christian McCaffrey. They will hope to flex their newfound toughness in shutting down the middle of the field — Aiyuk’s specialty.
The thought here is that there aren’t enough defenders to blanket everyone and that Purdy will find Aiyuk early for a tone-setting completion of 13-plus yards.
The bet: Aiyuk’s first catch over 12.5 yards (-105 at BetMGM).
PROP BET 2
Starting QBs alternate passing yards over/under.
The game script for these teams is likely for both to establish the run.
Strong lead ball carriers McCaffrey of the 49ers and Isiah Pacheco of the Chiefs will have a busy first half trying to grab the upper hand.
The clock will run.
Is there a world in which a Patrick Mahomes-led team is blown out in a postseason game? Leaning no. Therefore, here’s the way this prop will work:
Kansas City succeeds in pounding Pacheco; San Francisco stubbornly stays with McCaffrey — running and receiving.
Mahomes doesn’t need to throw downfield to keep the Chiefs close, or in front.
Purdy will have more pass plays in the second half and should have no problem reaching 200 yards by early in the fourth quarter.
In a close matchup, the quarterbacks should both settle in around 230-250 yards passing.
The bet: Same-game parlay, alternate passing yards. Purdy over 214.5; Mahomes under 293.5 (-120 at DraftKings).
PROP BET 3
Travis Kelce catching the football.
We know 13 is a lucky number for Taylor Swift . And we know that “49” is part of 49ers. And 4+9 is 13.
And we know that this is Super Bowl 58, and 5+8 is 13.
But Kelce is No. 87. And 8+7 is 15. And 15 is Mahomes’ number.
Is there a world in which Mahomes ignores Kelce? No.
This 7/70 same-game parlay is largely predicated on Kelce’s postseason resurgence after looking very old (think Nick Nolte in “North Dallas Forty” … Google it) in December.
But his past three playoff games have been a revelation. Kelce has 23 catches for 262 yards in those games.
Kansas City will need him to be great again. No cold hands, no Super Bowl cold feet.
Hot bet, people.
The bet: Same-game parlay: Travis Kelce over 6.5 receptions and 70-plus yards (+114 at DraftKings).
–Field Level Media