Rose Bowl
Alabama 12-1 vs. Michigan 13-0
- Monday, 5 p.m. ET, ESPN
- Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California
- Line: Michigan -1.5; Over/Under 44.5
Admit it, you don’t know anyone who isn’t a Michigan fan, who thinks the Wolverines will win this Rose Bowl game against Alabama. And yet, bookmakers have made Michigan the favorite. What gives?
Michigan has held opponents to less than 10 points eight times this season. It has the second-best pass defense, allowing 5.82 yards per attempt. Maybe that’s it. Then again, defense has always been Alabama’s strong suit. The problem is that SEC offenses are getting better and better and for that reason the Crimson Tide’s numbers don’t look as good when stacked up against Michigan.
The area Alabama ranks better on paper is on offense. Quarterback Jalen Milroe, a player that his former offensive coordinator tried to talk out of playing quarterback, improved dramatically from the beginning of the season. He beats opponents with his arm and legs, with 2,718 passing yards and 468 rushing and has accounted for 35 TDs, 12 of those on the ground. On passes of 20 yards or more, Milroe ranks third with a 53.1% completion rate.
Michigan runs the ball 38 times per game and throws an average of 24 passes. It is led by an exceptional offensive line and running back Blake Corum. Corum, who missed the College Football Playoff the past two years, rushed for 1,028 yards, averaging 4.7 per carry, and his 24 rushing touchdowns led the nation.
The Wolverines went 13-0 this season despite coach Jim Harbaugh being out for 6 games over two different suspensions. Alabama is 6-1 in College Football Playoff semifinal games and has won six straight. Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban rarely loses these type of games.
If these two teams play to their strengths, this game could be one of the best defensive matchups we’ve ever seen in the Playoff. Michigan’s defense, as good as it has been, will have to have its best game to slow down Milroe. That will be the key matchup.
It’s hard to ever pick against Alabama, so we’re not going to do it here. We’ll take the Crimson Tide and the points.
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