We checked in on the six-best defenses in the NFL heading into the 2015 season in a piece late last month. Using advanced statistics and projecting how certain players will fit into new schemes, we came to the conclusion that three of the top-six defenses in the league play in the NFC West.
On the other end of the spectrum, here are our projections for the six-worst defenses in the NFL. You will see two AFC South teams top the list—two teams that just didn’t do enough to improve off of what were disastrous 2014 seasons. You will also see a couple of surprise entrants here, including one team many believe has improved on this side of the ball.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
This is in large part due to the ACL injury that rookie first-round pick Dante Fowler Jr. suffered in his first practice as a member of the Jaguars. Gus Bradley and company were expecting him to be featured as a roaming pass-rush threat in the defense’s front seven. While it’s hard for one guy, especially a rookie, to make such an impact, this is what Jacksonville was banking on. Without Fowler Jr. in the mix, the Jaguars are going to be in trouble.
While the Jaguars’ defense did rank sixth in the NFL with 45 sacks, most of those were fluky more than anything. This unit ranked in the bottom fourth of the NFL in terms of a pass-rush grade (via Pro Football Focus, subscription required). It also failed to put up consistent pressure on the quarterback, ranking among the worst defenses in the league in quarterback hurries. Sacks are fine and dandy, but teams must find a way to put pressure on the quarterback when not racking up that vastly overrated stat.
Overall, the Jaguars defense ranked near the bottom in nearly every single statistical category last year. It was 26th in points against, 22nd against the pass, 27th against the run and 26th in total defense. With other teams improving through free agency and the draft, Jacksonville is just stuck here. Outside of Fowler Jr., it really didn’t add anyone of substance on a defense that has been among the worst in the NFL over the past few seasons.
2. Tennessee Titans
Courtesy of USA Today Sports: This will be a common sight for the Titans’ defense in 2015.
If healthy, Brian Orakpo will be a nice addition to to the team. He will line up opposite the newly re-signed Derrick Morgan to form a solid one-two punch at outside linebacker. However, that’s not really going to mask the issues throughout the rest of this team’s defense. Tennessee yielded the third-most points (27.4 per game), sixth-most total yards (373.0 per game) while ranking 31st in the NFL against the run last season. Even a slightly improved pass rush isn’t going to change those numbers too dramatically.
The larger issue here for Tennessee is in the secondary. While the team did add Perrish Cox from the San Francisco 49ers in free agency, it remains to be seen whether his first-half performance last season was a fluke. According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Cox put up a positive 6.4 grade in San Francisco’s first seven games before tallying one of the worst coverage grades in the NFL in the second half of the year. Cox joins a Titans secondary that already boasts one of the worst coverage free safeties in the league in the form of Michael Griffin.
There are also tremendous question marks along the team’s defensive line. Unless the combination of Sammie Hill and Jurrell Casey can open up gaps for Morgan and Orakpo on the outside, Tennessee’s issues in coverage won’t be masked. Those two also need to do a better job stopping the run, as evidenced by the team’s aforementioned ranking in that category.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This pretty much goes without saying. Instead of addressing weaknesses on defense following the selection of Jameis Winston No. 1 overall in the 2015 NFL draft, Tampa Bay decided to double down on offense by adding linemen with the next two picks. The team actually didn’t address defense until it selected former LSU linebacker Kwon Alexander in the fourth round. In fact, Tampa Bay lost a couple starters from a season ago in defensive end Adrian Clayborn and safety Dashon Goldson.
While Goldson may not be a huge loss, the Buccaneers’ safety situation is now a hot mess with Chris Conte, Bradley McDougald, Major Wright and Keith Tandy all competing for starting jobs. Ouch!
The larger issue, however, will be generating a pass rush. With Claybron gone, there really isn’t much to look at from the defensive end position in the team’s 4-3 scheme. Projected starting defensive ends Jacquies Smith and George Johnson combined for 12.5 sacks last season. And while Gerald McCoy is one of the top interior defensive linemen in the NFL, he’s not going to be able to do it all himself. The good news for Tampa Bay is that it possesses a solid corner tandem in Johnthan Banks and Alterraun Verner. That should help mask issues with actually getting to the quarterback on a consistent basis.
4. Chicago Bears
Courtesy of USA Today Sports: Vic Fangio has a tall task ahead of himself in Chicago.
Head coach John Fox and first-year defensive coordinator Vic Fangio may very well turn this thing around at some point soon, but it’s not going to happen in 2015. Even the best defensive minds need talent in order to succeed—talent that the Bears simply don’t have right now. There are major issues within every tier of a defense that finished the 2014 season 30th in total defense, 31st in scoring defense and 30th against the pass.
Now transitioning to a 3-4 scheme under Fangio, it’s going to be interesting to see how veterans Jared Allen and Jay Ratliff handle the switch. More than that, Will Sutton, Eddie Goldman and Ego Ferguson will have to hold down the fort at defensive tackle.
Barring Allen hitting the fountain of youth hard here, Chicago’s pass-rush is going to be somewhat of an issue. This is going to leave the likes of Kyle Fuller and Tim Jennings out in space at corner. While Fuller possesses plus-level coverage ability, there has to be a concern here. That concern is magnified by the presence of a lackluster safety group led by free-agent acquisition Antrel Rolle and second-year free safety Brock Vereen. One of those two players is going to have to step up if the Bears’ defense is going to make a drastic leap from last season.
5. Oakland Raiders
Courtesy of USA Today Sports: Now is the time for D.J. Hayden to step up.
General manager Reggie McKenzie is in the process of building a contender, but that process isn’t going to lead to a playoff team overnight. This is most magnified on the defensive side of the ball where Oakland ranked in the bottom third of the NFL in most major statistical categories.
Instead of doubling down on defense after selecting Khalil Mack in the first round of the 2014 NFL draft, McKenzie made the smart decision of adding a young receiver for franchise quarterback Derek Carr in the form of Amari Cooper with the team’s first-round pick in the 2015 draft. Unfortunately, that has helped lead to some major question marks on defense.
With a mix of over-the-hill veterans and unproven youngsters, it’s hard to believe that the Raiders’ defense will improve much from a season ago. Justin Tuck, Curtis Lofton, Charles Woodson and Nate Allen may add experience to this unit, but none of them are real difference-makers at this point. In fact, it must be noted that Lofton and Allen, who came to the team via free agency in March, have not graded out as starter-caliber players over the past handful of seasons. It’s fine to add experience, but you also need to find some talent to go with it. Neither of those players add much to the roster right now.
Travis Carrie was a surprise rookie at corner last season, but he’s still a question mark heading into his rookie season. Meanwhile, former first-round pick D.J. Hayden needs to step his game up big time if he wants to hang on to his starter role. That’s the biggest issues here. Outside of an aging Charles Woodson, the Raiders’ secondary is an absolute mess. Look for another bottom-tier defense from Oakland in 2015.
6. New Orleans Saints
Acquiring castoffs from other teams isn’t going to rebuild one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Sadly, that’s exactly what Dannell Ellerbe and Anthony Spencer are. Neither player has been a starter-caliber performer over the past couple seasons. And both are going to be asked to play important roles at linebacker—a position that is relied on a great deal in a 3-4 scheme. This doesn’t even begin to scratch the surface when it comes to a Saints defense that yielded the second-most yards in the NFL last season.
Can Brandon Browner act as a true No. 1 cornerback? Will Kenny Vaccaro ever live up to his status as a first-round pick? Outside of Junior Galette and Cameron Jordan, is there any starter-caliber players in the team’s defensive front? Heck, who is going to be the Saints primary nickel back heading into the season? Surely it can’t be the bust better known as Kyle Wilson.
Simply put, there just isn’t enough talent here to rank the Saints defense any higher than it’s currently ranked here. The team needs to add talent at all levels of its defense in order to be considered playoff contenders. Unfortunately, that’s not happening in 2015.
Photo: USA Today Sports