When looking at where some of the top-tier pending free agents might land on the open market next month, it’s hard to draw an ultimate conclusion before addressing the whole franchise tag situation.
As it relates to the wide receiver position, there has to be no realistic expectation that either Dez Bryant or Demaryius Thomas will be afforded the right to hit free agency. In short, both will be franchised if their respective teams are not able to come to a long-term agreement with the star receivers.
Outside of that, there are still at on of valuable free-agents set to hit the market in March. Here’s a look at where we project some of them to land.
Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers
Crabtree took a major step back this past season. Some will blame San Francisco’s play-calling or the regression of Colin Kaepernick, but this former first-round pick just wasn’t the same receiver we saw back in 2012. Some of this could have had to do with 2014 being his first full season since a torn Achilles. However, Crabtree’s hands were a major issue in 2014. Considering that was a major strength of his before, the confidence teams had in Crabtree being a consistent threat might not be where it once was. With that said, the former Texas Tech standout will find himself highly sought after when all is said and done on the open market.
With an ability to play on the outside or in the slot, Crabtree’s versatility will be a big draw. This is where a team like the Minnesota Vikings might come into play. Teddy Bridgewater is in need of a true No. 1 possession receiver, which is something Crabtree will bring to the table. the Vikings can also send Greg Jennings packing in the offseason—creating the cap room to sign Crabtree. It just makes too much sense.
Torrey Smith, Baltimore Ravens
Probably one of the most overrated upcoming free agents, Smith will be overpaid simply because he has the speed to be able to take the top off the defense. That’s a huge draw in today’s NFL, especially with the growing trend of safeties playing closer to the box with cornerbacks extended in man coverage outside. Smith did put up 767 yards and 11 touchdowns last season and is averaging a ridiculous 20 yards per catch in his career.
In looking at teams that could use a deep threat, the defending champion New England Patriots come to mind. Julian Edelman is a solid possession guy and Rob Gronkowski does his thing in the middle of the field. However, just imagine how electric this offense would be with Smith providing that down-field threat for Tom Brady. The good news here for fans in New England is that the Patriots have an ability to free up cap space to sign someone of Smith’s caliber by moving on from Vince Wilfork.
Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles
It’s going to be interesting to see if the Eagles pony up the cash to retain Maclin, who could end up topping the free agent market depending on what happens to the players listed below him here. Maclin’s coming off a ridiculous 2014 campaign that saw him put up career-best numbers in receptions (85), yards (1,318) and touchdowns (10). The larger issue here is whether the market will take into account Maclin’s presence in a Chip Kelly-led offense that seems to play to the strengths of his receivers.
As it relates to a potential landing spot, this is where the Oakland Raiders come into play. Maclin will be just 27 years old when the 2015 season starts. This is an indication that he’s just about to enter the prime of his career. Flush with the necessary cap room and in dire need of a true No. 1 target for Derek Carr, it has to be expected that Oakland will make a play for him.
Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers
Green Bay planned for the potential departure of Cobb when it selected Davante Adams in the second round of the 2014 NFL draft. And for what it’s worth, Adams was darn impressive in limited time as a rookie. This could signify an end to Cobb’s tenure with the defending NFC North champions. If so—and with both Bryant and Thomas likely to be franchised—this talented young receiver would be the top target on the open market.
The normal teams would then be there to show interest in the Kentucky product. From the Oakland Raiders to the Cleveland Browns, franchises with a ton of cap room would line up to sign this dynamo. However, Cobb would be free to choose his best possible option. And in reality, both of those squads leave a lot to be desired from a talent standpoint.
This leads me to a true wild card in every sense of the term. What about the San Francisco 49ers? Sure this team isn’t exactly floating in millions of cap room, but it does have the flexibility with veteran deals to create a ton of space in the coming weeks. With Michael Crabtree set to become a free agent and Anquan Boldin likely playing just one more year, receiver is going to be a big need for a team that disappointed big time last year.
In addition to that, a deep threat has been one of the few things missing for Colin Kaepernick in the passing game. Should Cobb hit the open market, I fully expect San Francisco to make a strong play for his services. At that point, it would then have to provide the necessary cap room to actually sign the young receiver. That could easily come in the form of releasing Ahmad Brooks and Stevie Johnson—two players that might not fit into San Francisco’s long-term plans.
Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos
Much like Bryant, there is little chance that Thomas actually sees the light of day in free agency. Recent reports suggest that John Elway and company will place the the tag on this talented young pass catcher. Short of the Broncos letting him hit March as a free man, Thomas will return to the mix in Denver next season.
If he were to hit the open market, the likeliest scenario here has to be Thomas catching on with a team that already possesses a top-notch young signal caller, which would create the next great quarterback-wide receiver tandem in the NFL. That’s also where Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts come into play. T.Y. Hilton might be a really good starting receiver, but he would excel even more as the team’s secondary target. Fully invested in Luck to be the franchise quarterback, Indianapolis may very well decide to use some of its large amount of cap room on a dynamic receiving option for the quarterback.
Of course, that’s all based on Thomas actually hitting the open market. At this point, there’s no secenario more likely than this top-notch receiver returning to the Denver Broncos either via the franchise tag or a long-term deal.
Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys
The expectation has to be that Dallas will franchise Bryant should the two sides not come to a long-term agreement prior to the start of free agency. That’s only magnified by the public stance Dallas has taken regarding the situation over these past few months.
If the Cowboys were to let Bryant test the free-agent waters, there would be a limited number of seriously interested suitors because of what promises to be a huge contract. Among the teams that have the necessary cap to work out a lucrative deal, the Oakland Raiders would make the most sense. Flush with cash under the cap and in need of a true No. 1 wide receiver for Bryant, the bottom-feeding Raiders could make a strong play for the Pro Bowler.
The question would then become how Oakland could entice Bryant to sign with what has been a historically bad football team over the past few years. The answer to that question is rather simple, Derek Carr. In reality, Oakland would definitely choose someone of Bryant’s caliber over Jeremy Maclin.
Much like Thomas before, there’s no real reason to believe that Bryant’s current team will even give him the opportunity to test the open market. Expect this dynamo of a receiver to return to the Dallas Cowboys one way or another.
Photo: USA Today