Dave Litman
It was a seismic blockbuster that took the hockey world by storm late Sunday afternoon. The Ottawa Senators sent captain Brady Tkachuk to the Florida Panthers to join his brother Matthew in a deal that has many around the sport shaking their heads.
The Sens got only draft capital in return. Two first-rounders this year, another one in 2029, and a second rounder in 2030. Ottawa now has three first-round picks this year, four first-rounders in the next three years, and all of their own picks in all other rounds over the next few NHL Drafts. Could they be cooking up another massive deal using many of those draft assets?
Insider David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period tells us that the Senators have Dallas Stars superstar forward, and restricted free agent, Jason Robertson on their radar.
“Things are very fluid, and there’s plenty of time for Dallas to explore its options,” writes Pagnotta, “but sources say Ottawa is making a big push for Jason Robertson. If a trade cannot be ironed out and he hits July 1 as an RFA, the Senators could present him with a significant offer sheet.”
To be clear, any offer sheet for Robertson would have to start with a 12. As in, a $12 million AAV or better. That’s what the Robertson camp is looking for, and that’s why the negotiations with Dallas have dragged out. The Stars have only $10.4M in cap space at this time, and they also have other free agents to try to re-sign.
An offer sheet to Jason Robertson would cost four first-round picks in compensation
The NHL’s new offer sheet compensation tiers require any team handing out an offer worth north of $11.939M annually to surrender FOUR first-round picks in return to the player’s former team. As noted above, Ottawa does have four firsts over the next three years, including all three of their own. Is that what the Senators have in mind here?
Perhaps they’d try the trade route first with Dallas. One proposed deal would look like this:
This hypothetical offer would have two of the Sens’ three first-rounders this year (#9 and #25, both acquired for Tkachuk) going to Dallas, in addition to highly touted American defenseman Logan Hensler, a 2025 first-rounder, and 26-year-old forward Fabian Zetterlund.
If the Senators are somehow able to pivot from Tkachuk to Robertson, some would argue that they come out ahead in the end. Is Robertson a better player than Tkachuk? It’s a valid debate. The Dallas forward has three 40-goal seasons in the past five years, and an iron-man mark of reliability. He’s played in every single one of the 82-game schedules over the last four seasons.
There’s still a lot that has to happen here first, however. The Stars have to concede that they cannot find a way to clear the cap space to get Robertson signed. Or that they just cannot come to terms with paying him north of $12M AAV.
Robertson finished this past season with 45 goals and 96 points. Tkachuk missed 22 games in the regular season, and finished with 22 goals and 59 points in 60 games, while handing out 162 hits.
It’s been a wild week of off-ice activity around the NHL since the Stanley Cup was handed out. And clearly, there’s much more to come in the days ahead.
