James Nichols
When the New Jersey Devils’ season went on pause, they left off on a high note. A 4-0 shutout victory against the Montreal Canadiens made them and their fans feel better about going into a two-week break before seeing Devils hockey again. And although they paused on a high note, overall they haven’t felt great about themselves since returning from the Christmas break in December. Yet, when New Jersey returns to the ice next weekend, there’s certainly going to be reason for optimism heading into the home stretch before the Stanley Cup Playoffs begin.
Between Dec. 27th and now, the Devils gave us no shortage of signals to be pessimistic about the team. They were unable to string together more than two wins in a row, they went on two separate four-game losing streaks, and more often than not, were giving up leads more familiar with the 2023-24 version of the Devils.
It certainly gave Devils fans reason to pause before remembering that the Devils today are far different from the team that was iced in the previous season.
The goaltending is far stronger, the blueline is much deeper, and the core is still intact.
Are there flaws? Certainly.
Everyone expects Devils general manager Tom Fitzgerald to be a buyer by March 7th by addressing the depth scoring at the very least. He should also be seeking a complimentary top-six shooter.
However, when analyzing the Devils between Christmas and the 4 Nations Face-Off, there was one glaring difference, which is our first reason for optimism.
Shooting Percentage is Way Down
One of the things Fitzgerald explained over and over again in the summer was that he didn’t believe scoring goals was going to be a problem for the Devils.
They started the season far better, but now sit 13th overall in the NHL, scoring 3.05 goals per game.
Certainly, there’s been inconsistency when it comes to filling the net. Some nights, the Devils will tag the opposing goaltender for four or more goals through 60 minutes. Other nights, they’re desperate to even find the back of the net once.
As a result, the Devils own the second-most shutout losses (seven) in the NHL.
However, the difference between the pre-holiday Devils and post is their shooting percentage. Before, the Devils were converting on 11% of their shots from opening night through Dec. 23rd. That earned the Devils a 23-11-4 record and .662 PTS%.
Yet, between Dec. 27th and now, the Devils converted on just 9.4% of their shots.
The result? An 8-9-4 record and .475 PTS%.
Whether you want to call them victims or contributors, some of the Devils’ top players such as Timo Meier and Jesper Bratt have certainly been snake bitten.
Yet, it’s natural for the shooting percentage to regress to the mean. And if/when it does, the Devils will look a whole lot better.
Health Improving
The 4 Nations Face-Off couldn’t have come at a better time for this very reason.
Fortunately, the Devils got two weeks—much like the rest of the NHL—to heal. Head coach Sheldon Keefe explained he would be surprised if Nico Hischier’s not good to go when New Jersey resumes play against the Dallas Stars on Feb. 22nd.
As for Jacob Markstrom, his 4-6 week recovery timeline closely aligns with the return of play. If the Devils’ No.1 netminder only requires the minimum, perhaps we see him back between the pipes on Feb. 26th against the Colorado Avalanche. And if not, Jake Allen has proven to be a luxurious “backup,” holding down starting duties seamlessly from where Markstrom left off.
Jonas Siegenthaler’s status is still to be determined. However, the Devils getting the majority of their lineup back down the stretch and around the NHL trade deadline should give the roster a boost while giving the GM the sufficient time needed to assess trade needs.
Strength of Schedule
As of today, the Devils have a 96% chance of clinching a spot in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, according to Dom Luszczyszyn’s latest projection of The Athletic.
They left the regular season on pause with an eight-point cushion on the Columbus Blue Jackets who sit behind the Devils in the playoff race.
Looking at the strength of schedule via Tankathon, New Jersey doesn’t have the easiest path moving forward. However, they certainly don’t have the worst. With 25 games remaining for the Devils, they have the fourth-hardest remaining schedule in the Metropolitan Division.
The Washington Capitals and Carolina Hurricanes both have a better strength of schedule through the remainder of the regular season. They’re ahead of the Devils in the standings anyway, so it’s not as if New Jersey can be dethroned.
Then, the Pennsylvania teams are the other two teams ahead of New Jersey in terms of strength of schedule. Both the Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers are 13 points back of New Jersey in the standings. They are also projected to be sellers at the NHL trade deadline.
Therefore, there’s not much reason to believe either team will leap the Devils in the standings at this point.
As for the chasing teams who are on the bubble, all the Blue Jackets, New York Rangers, and New York Islanders have harder games ahead.
It feels as though the Devils have a stronghold of at least third place in the Metropolitan Division. And it’s not like second place and home ice advantage is out of reach, sitting just two points behind Carolina with just a game in hand.
For those who were writing off the Devils’ season off amid some struggles, it would appear the cart was put before the horse.
There’s plenty of reason to be optimistic that New Jersey will, in fact, be playing in the Stanley Cup Playoffs this spring.
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