James Nichols
With the NHL’s salary cap steadily rising, roster decisions this summer could have ripple effects well into the next decade. One scenario gaining attention involves Detroit Red Wings center Dylan Larkin trade request and the possibility of landing with the Minnesota Wild. For the New Jersey Devils, that move might quietly tilt the long-term outlook in their favor.
Larkin carries an $8.7 million annual cap hit with five years remaining on his contract through 2031. At today’s cap ceiling, that represents roughly 8.4 percent of a team’s spending.
But with projections showing the league ceiling climbing toward $123 million by the 2029-30 season, that same contract becomes far more team-friendly, likely falling to about 7.0% of the cap.
If Larkin is traded to Minnesota, he enters a crowded cap sheet. The Wild already feature several sizable commitments, most notably Kirill Kaprizov’s $17 million AAV—which accounts for 16.3% of the cap. Brock Faber sits at $8.5 million (around 8.2%), Quinn Hughes at $7.85 million (about 7.5 percent, although due a significant raise), and a big raise likely ahead for Matt Boldy in 2031. Factor in Jesper Wallstedt could remain in Minnesota and is due a significant raise himself, adding Larkin’s $8.7 million would likely bring Minnesota to four contracts or more at or above the 7.0% threshold—pushing them above the league median of roughly three such deals per team.
While some clubs have succeeded with heavier concentrations of high-end contracts, particularly when those players deliver elite production, the approach carries risks. It narrows flexibility for depth additions, injury cover, or pursuing additional talent in future offseasons. Teams that cluster too many big-ticket deals often face difficult choices when the cap inevitably tightens or when performance dips.
Just look at the Toronto Maple Leafs pre Mitch Marner trade, or the number of cap crunching decisions the Vegas Golden Knights have had to make despite their current pursuit for the Stanley Cup. Vegas is a rare exception to the rule, especially when you consider the Carolina Hurricanes are far more salary cap balanced.
The dynamic becomes relevant in 2030, when Jack Hughes reaches unrestricted free agency at age 29.
Family considerations have long fueled speculation about a possible Hughes reunion with the Wild, where his oldest brother Quinn is a key contributor and very well may call Minnesota home.
Quinn’s current contract expires after the 2026-27 season, and he has indicated interest in staying with the Wild. A multi-year extension there could strengthen Minnesota’s pitch if and when Jack becomes available.
Yet the cap picture complicates that narrative for Minnesota. A significant raise for Quinn and a tighter book from absorbing Larkin’s deal should make it more challenging to create the kind of financial runway needed to pursue another high-end player without difficult roster moves.
In New Jersey, the situation looks more straightforward. Jack remains under contract through 2029-30 at an $8 million cap hit. Nico Hischier—who is likely to extend, albeit with a raise of his own—provides stability at center, and younger brother Luke Hughes is locked in through the 2031-32 season following his recent seven-year extension inked last September.
By steering clear of Larkin’s contract themselves, the Devils maintain greater flexibility to address other needs such as a top-6 forward to play with Jack and Jesper Bratt, while handling upcoming extensions such as Arseny Gritsyuk and Dawson Mercer’s as the cap grows.
The family element remains a real factor. Quinn’s potential long-term commitment in Minnesota could make a reunion appealing. At the same time, Luke’s extended presence in New Jersey creates its own counter-pull, and Jack has shown strong devotion to the Devils organization and infatuation with the East Coast lifestyle.
Cap management has become one of the defining elements of sustained success in the NHL. By Minnesota potentially trading for Larkin, the Devils may find themselves in a stronger position to build around their core and keep key pieces in place.
In a league where flexibility often separates contenders from also-rans, this would represent a subtle but meaningful edge heading into the latter part of the decade.
