Daniel Amoia
With the help of New Jersey Devils forward Paul Cotter’s insurance goal, the U.S. and Canada are set for an Olympic “rematch” at the quarterfinals of the IIHF World Championships. Puck drops tomorrow, May 28th at 10:20 AM EDT.
Except this time, it’s hardly a rematch at all. Team USA has just one returnee from the Olympics (Matthew Tkachuk). 12 of their players have played 100 or fewer NHL games. Some are still prospects in college and have yet to play one.
As a whole, the U.S. roster has a combined 5,398 games of NHL experience. The U.S. skaters who are in the NHL average 0.41 points per game (P/GP) there. Compare that to the 15,614 games of experience and 0.67 P/GP for the Olympic squad.
Canada’s squad isn’t Olympic-caliber, either; Devils forwards Connor Brown and Dawson Mercer are among those rostered, neither of whom would be of serious consideration for the Olympic team. Still, Canada has more than double the NHL experience (12,185 games) compared to the U.S. — and packs a terrifying 1-2 punch down the middle in Sidney Crosby and Macklin Celebrini.
These Canadian skaters average 0.68 P/GP in the NHL — more than the actual U.S. Olympic roster that won it all.
That’s precisely why Cotter and Team USA are in a tremendous spot. If Canada wins, it’s expected. A team of NHLers — and good ones at that — beating a team primarily comprised of prospects and bottom-sixers. It’s not much for bragging rights.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Canada is -380 to win, implying a ~79.2% chance. All the pressure is off the shoulders of Team USA after already having won the Olympics. They can play free (as a bird) with not much to really lose, which can potentially work to their advantage.
#NJDevils Paul Cotter with an impressive sharp angle goal to extend the U.S. lead to 3-0.
— Daniel Amoia (@daniel_amoia) May 26, 2026
That probably cements the fact that they’re going to move on to the quarterfinals.
His second goal of the tournament. pic.twitter.com/2QHcpEQbYg
But if the underdog American squad does find a way to best Canada, that’s going to cause quite a stir in the hockey world. It’s no secret that USA Hockey has inched closer to the hockey powerhouse of Canada in recent seasons, Olympics aside. A win here would only add to that narrative.
A victory for the U.S. isn’t impossible. While unlikely, a 20.8% chance isn’t nothing. A Norwegian squad with just 164 games of NHL experience took Canada to overtime a few days ago. A Slovenian squad with zero NHL players only lost 3-1 to Canada.
Meanwhile, the U.S. enters playing their best hockey. They’ve looked much more cohesive as a team, outscoring the opposition 11-4 in their last two contests. Tkachuk has led the way with five points in those two matches.
The U.S. also has a goaltender capable of stealing a game. Devin Cooley had a .909 save percentage (SV%) for the Calgary Flames this season, and has followed that up with a spectacular .930 SV% at the World Championships.
Odds are, Canada will still come out victorious. But the game has to be played for a reason — and pressure/nerves can’t be measured on paper. Cotter and Team USA have essentially nothing to lose, but a ton to gain.
