Marc Dumont
The Montreal Canadiens have run relatively stable pairings in the playoffs, but a change may by in the works.
When evaluating Montreal’s defensive pairs, the results are rather curious. In this particular case, we’re only discussing their 5v5 numbers versus the Sabres, therefore, the sample size is limited, but it does give us a very good idea of how things have unfolded on the blue line.
Defensive Pairings At 5v5 (Versus Sabres)
The eye test tells us that the Mike Matheson and Alexandre Carrier pairing has been outshot by a wide margin, and that is represented in the statistics. They’ve only managed to control a little over 45 percent of the shots, which is far from ideal.
And yet, the fact that they’re facing the opposing team’s best players suggests that they’re dealing with a higher quality of competition than their teammates, making their 59% control of the high-danger chances an impressive number.
It’s almost the opposite situation for the second pairing, currently featuring Noah Dobson and Lane Hutson. They control more shots than any other pairing, but they’re being outchanced by a fairly wide margin.
And finally, when it comes to the third pairing of Arber Xhekaj and Kaiden Guhle, they’re dealing with an even smaller sample size, but the early results are nothing to write home about.
Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks
Neither Xhekaj nor Jayden Struble practiced on Thursday, which means there’s a chance the former will have to make way in the lineup for the latter.
Xhekaj played just 3:46 on Tuesday, far and away the least amount of ice time given to a player of either team, indicating that he’s possibly falling out of favour with head coach Martin St-Louis.
And yet, the possibility of replacing him in the lineup would lead to a dearth in toughness at a time when the Sabres are going out of their way to increase the physicality of every single shift.
That’s not to say Struble is a wilting flower, as he can certainly bring an important element of violence to the table, however, it’s worth pointing out that he spent just 17 minutes at 5v5 alongside Guhle throughout the regular season.
But if playing Struble allows St-Louis to roll his pairings with less apprehension and more confidence, it will be a considerable win from a roster construction standpoint.
All Montreal Canadiens statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted, via Natural Stat Trick.
