Marc Dumont
The Montreal Canadiens are set to face the surging Carolina Hurricanes in the 2026 NHL Eastern Conference Final, giving us a great opportunity to evaluate their 5v5 numbers throughout the regular season.
We’ll then take a look at how the Habs and Canes performed when they faced each other on three occasions.
Canadiens And Hurricanes Regular-Season Stats (5v5)
The first thing we must note is that the Hurricanes are the epitome of an ‘analytics darling’ team. They take a lot of shots, and they tend to outshoot their opponents by a significant margin.
They’re also a top-5 team when it comes to generating high-danger scoring chances.
When it comes to the shot-share battle, expect the Hurricanes to reign supreme.
Shooting And Goaltending
On the flip side of the coin, the Canadiens enjoyed the better goaltending, both in regular save percentage and high-danger save percentage. They also had the more efficient shooters, including high-quality shooting opportunities.
While the Hurricanes put more rubber on net, the Habs are much better at stopping said rubber, not to mention when it comes to capitalizing on their own scoring chances.
It’s a battle of quantity versus quality, with the Hurricanes necessitating an incredibly high volume of shots to generate most of their offence.
Goals
Their results are quite similar when we boil things down to their ability to score and prevent goals.
The Habs score more often at 5v5, but the Hurricanes are still among top 10 teams, whereas the Canes are better at stopping pucks from entering their net, but not by very much.
Canadiens Vs. Hurricanes Head-To-Head Statistics
Carolina and Montreal locked horns on three occasions in the regular season. All three of the games ended with a win for the Canadiens, though they were certainly high-event match-ups.
The Canadiens beat the Hurricanes 7-5 on January 1, before winning two games in late March.
In total, they outscored the Hurricanes 12-3, giving them an 80% edge in goals scored at 5v5.
That means it should be a walk in the park for the Habs, right?
Absolutely not!
Statistically speaking, the Canadiens were incredibly lucky to emerge from their three games versus the Hurricanes with a single point, let alone three wins.
That’s not to say Carolina will flat-out dominate the Habs at 5v5 in the upcoming series, but we shouldn’t fool ourselves into thinking Montreal will be the favourite team due to the regular-season results.
Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks
Most analysts will pick the Hurricanes to win the Eastern Conference Final, and there’s enough data to suggest it’s a very logical decision.
However, we’re yet to see what the impact of having almost two weeks off between playoff series. The Hurricanes are ice-cold, while the Canadiens have essentially played every two days since the playoffs started.
It’s also important to remember the Canadiens have faced a much higher quality of competition in the playoffs, as the Sabres and the Tampa Bay Lightning were among the best teams in the Eastern Conference, while the Ottawa Senators and Philadelphia Flyers were not.
If I were a betting man, my money would be on the Hurricanes, but I’d be very tempted endorse the Canadiens, due to their affinity for rising to the challenge when adversity hits.
And as we all know, they’re bound to face a mountain of adversity in the upcoming series versus the Hurricanes.
All Montreal Canadiens statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted, via Natural Stat Trick.
