Marc Dumont
The Montreal Canadiens will face the Buffalo Sabres in the second round of the 2026 NHL Playoffs. Just as we did in the first round versus the Tampa Bay Lightning, we will preview the series by analyzing some of the most important 5v5 statistics powering the teams during the regular season.
We’ll then take a look at how the Sabres and Habs performed when they faced each other on four occasions. We will also evaluate the special teams and X-Factors in a follow-up article.
Canadiens And Sabres Regular-Season Stats (5v5)
Much like the Lightning, the Sabres are expected to hold an advantage at 5v5 based on the results in the regular season, but the discrepancy between the Habs and the Sabres is much less noticeable.
In other words, even though the Sabres take more shots, produce more expected goals, and have a larger share of the high-danger scoring chances, the Canadiens are definitely still in the mix.
Shooting And Goaltending
As for the netminding, the Sabres have an advantage, though we must remember Montreal’s regular-season numbers include Samuel Montembeault’s results.
During the playoffs, rookie goaltender Jakub Dobes has produced a .923 save percentage (all situations), though the Sabres have also received excellent netminding from Alex Lyon, who is sporting an impressive .955 save percentage.
Once again, the only advantage in the regular season was Montreal’s shooting percentage, though Buffalo was also a top-5 team in that regard. They’re also a better team when it comes to their high-danger shooting efficiency.
Goals
The final metrics are fairly straight forward.
The Canadiens score a lot of goals, but the Sabres do a slightly better job. The same can be said about their ability to mitigating opponents’ goal scoring.
Canadiens Vs. Sabres Head-To-Head Statistics
To get a better idea of how they played head-to-head, we pulled the numbers from their four meetings in the regular season. Both teams won a pair of games, and every game was played before February. In other words, lots has changed since then, but it’s still worth keeping in mind.
The Canadiens outscored the Sabres at 5v5 (8-6), and yet, Buffalo held an edge in shot share, expected goals, and high-danger scoring chances, though the latter was not a significantly noticeable gap.
Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks
The numbers suggest the Sabres are the favourites, but that’s far from surprising.
And it’s definitely not enough to dismiss the Habs in this series. It won’t be easy to emerge from a seven-game series with a win, and they will once again be considered underdogs, but the Canadiens have a funny way of performing at their best when they’re facing adversity.
In fact, the Lightning held a greater advantage in almost every statistical category heading into the first round of the NHL playoffs, and yet, the Canadiens still found a way to win.
WOW! Alex Newhook bats the puck out of MID AIR to score and give the #GoHabsGo a 2-1 lead! pic.twitter.com/FOpO7QTPxh
— Montreal Hockey Now (@MTLhockeynow) May 4, 2026
Buffalo’s style of play is a little more aggressive than Tampa’s, in that they tend to outwork their opponents, reducing the number of passing and skating lanes available and thus creating a no-fly zone between the blue lines.
This is a particularly efficient, if not frustrating, strategy to face, which should push the youngest team in the league to its limit.
All Montreal Canadiens statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted, via Natural Stat Trick.
