Marc Dumont
The Montreal Canadiens (2-1) will host the Tampa Bay Lightning (1-2) in Game 4 on Sunday, with the puck drop scheduled for 7 pm ET.
The Habs emerged with a 3-2 overtime win on Friday, marking the third consecutive game in which these teams necessitated extra time to decide a winner.
On the surface, it may seem like a closely-fought battle, but once we delve into the numbers a little, it becomes clear that the Canadiens have held a significant advantage in a very important category: high-danger scoring chances.
In fact, heading into Sunday’s game, the Canadiens had controlled 75% of the quality scoring chances, far and away the best result of any playoff team through three games. This doesn’t necessarily mean they’re dominating the Lightning, but it’s an important development for the Habs, as they usually struggle when it comes to controlling the best chances in a period, let alone an entire series.
For fun, here's the HDCF% from the various teams in the playoffs after three games. This represents the share of high-danger scoring chances a team will generate.
— Montreal Hockey Now (@MTLhockeynow) April 25, 2026
The #GoHabsGo are leading the league by a rather wide margin, at 75%. https://t.co/vtaVVh8y3G pic.twitter.com/1XZdiqMTul
You could argue that Tampa Bay’s obsession with greasy hockey is backfiring, as the Canadiens have not only created four times more high-danger scoring chances, they’re also out hitting the Bolts in the process, with defenceman Arber Xhekaj and forward Josh Anderson leading the physical charge.
Xhekaj has also produced some of the best numbers among all NHL defencemen in the playoffs, forming a very solid third pairing alongside Jayden Struble.
If the Lightning continue to focus on extracurricular activities, the Habs will have an excellent chance to take a stranglehold on the series, by establishing a 3-1 lead with a win on Sunday. However, if Tampa Bay returns to playing regular hockey, it will make matters much more complicated for the Canadiens.
Potential Lineup Changes
Neither Victor Hedman nor Charle-Édouard D’Astous is expected to be available to the Lightning, and while there are chances we will see Canadiens defenceman Noah Dobson back in uniform in the relatively near future, he will not play on Sunday versus the Lightning.
On en saura plus sur la suite des choses pour Noah Dobson d’ici 48 heures. @CanadiensMTL @TVASports
— Renaud Lavoie (@RLavoieTVA) April 26, 2026
Any lineup changes will be confirmed once the teams take to the ice for the pregame warm-up, as both coaches are keeping their cards rather close to their chests at this point in the postseason.
Montreal Canadiens Projected Lineup
Cole Caufield – Nick Suzuki – Juraj Slafkovsky
Alex Newhook – Oliver Kapanen – Ivan Demidov
Zachary Bolduc- Kirby Dach – Alexandre Texier
Jake Evans – Phillip Danault – Josh Anderson
Mike Matheson – Alexander Carrier
Kaiden Guhle – Lane Hutson
Jayden Struble – Arber Xhekaj
Jakub Dobes
Tampa Bay Lightning Projected Lineup
Gage Goncalves – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel – Anthony Cirelli – Jake Guentzel
Zemgus Girgensons – Yanni Gourde – Nick Paul
Corey Perry – Dominic James – Scott Sabourin
J.J. Moser – Darren Raddysh
Ryan McDonagh – Erik Cernak
Declan Carlile – Emil Lilleberg
Andrei Vasilevskiy
How To Watch The Habs Vs. The Bolts
The Montreal Canadiens versus the Tampa Bay Lightning, Sunday, April 26, 2026, will be aired on CBC, Sportsnet, and TVA Sports. An instant recap complete with highlights will be available on Sportsnaut as soon as the final whistle blows.
Additional NHL Playoff Analysis
- Canadiens vs. Lightning – Playoff Primer – Head-to-Head at 5v5
- Canadiens Vs. Lightning – Special Teams
- Canadiens vs. Lightning – X Factors
