Marc Dumont
With just 11 games remaining on the docket, the Montreal Canadiens are in a very healthy situation when it comes to their playoff odds.
Before we get going, I’d like to clear up one minor annoyance when discussing the process of qualifying for the playoffs. We’ll often see analysts say that a team is yet to be ‘mathematically eliminated’, or something along those lines. However, it should be noted that mathematics is at the core of every playoff race.
Therefore, we can assume that every elimination is based on mathematics.
So is every qualification, every win, every loss, and most things related to sports.
Of course, this is quite the nit to pick, and it fits right in with my annoying habit of reminding everyone that there’s no such thing as an ‘assistant captain’ in the NHL.
It’s an alternate captain. They don’t bring coffee to their captain or pick up their dry cleaning.
With that in mind, let’s get to the crux of the matter, Montreal’s mathematical race to qualify for the playoffs.
Or, alternatively, the race to the playoffs.
Montreal Canadiens Playoff Odds
As it stands, the Canadiens’ playoff odds have risen to 93.8%.
They’re not a lock, but all things considered, the Habs should qualify for the playoffs in the tightly-contested Eastern Conference.
This may seem a little counterintuitive given that they’re just four points up on the Ottawa Senators, but it’s important to remember that making up ground in the final stretch of the year is very, very difficult. There are three-point games in play, mitigating the value of a late-season push.
Eastern Conference Playoff Odds (via Money Puck)
Carolina Hurricanes – 100%
Buffalo Sabres – 99.98%
Tampa Bay Lightning 99.91%
Montreal Canadiens 93.8%
Pittsburgh Penguins – 79.4%
Columbus Blue Jackets – 77.9%
Boston Bruins – 72%
Ottawa Senators – 66.5%
New York Islanders – 54.1%
Detroit Red Wings – 39.2%
Philadelphia Flyers – 12.6%
Washington Capitals – 4.1%
New Jersey Devils – 0.5%
Florida Panthers – 0%
Toronto Maple Leafs – 0%
New York Rangers – 0%
Final Montreal Canadiens Regular Season Games
Remaining Opponents: Nashville Predators, Carolina Hurricanes, Tampa Bay Lightning (x2), New York Rangers, New Jersey Devils (x2), Florida Panthers, Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Islanders, Philadelphia Flyers.
Of the 11 games remaining on the docket, the Canadiens will face teams currently in a playoff spot on just four occasions (Hurricanes, Lightning x2, Blue Jackets, Islanders).
To make matters more interesting, only two of those opponents are playing in the Atlantic Division.
The situation is reflected in Montreal’s strength of schedule (SOS), which isn’t the easiest in the league, but is among the least concerning in the Eastern Conference, as only four teams have an easier SOS.
Eastern Conference Strength Of Schedule (via Tankathon)
1 – Boston Bruins (.615)
2 – New York Islanders (.607)
3 – Columbus Blue Jackets (.603)
4 – Ottawa Senators (.598)
5 – Philadelphia Flyers (.596)
6 – Tampa Bay Lightning (.594)
7 – Detroit Red Wings (.584)
8 – New Jersey Devils (.582)
9 – New York Rangers (.581)
10 – Carolina Hurricanes (.579)
11 – Montreal Canadiens (.577)
12 – Buffalo Sabres (.572)
13 – Pittsburgh Penguins (.570)
14 – Florida Panthers (.569)
15 – Washington Capitals (.568)
16 – Toronto Maple Leafs (.563)
