Marc Dumont
The first-round series between the Montreal Canadiens and the Tampa Bay Lightning is tied at one game a piece, giving the Habs a perfect opportunity to regain the advantage now that the series is shifting back to the Bell Centre.
Seeing as both games required overtime, it’s safe to say the series has been tightly-contested, though there are some considerable numbers worth noting as the Habs prepare to host the Bolts.
In this article, we will discuss the play of the forward lines, while also keeping in mind we’re dealing with very limited sample sizes at 5v5.
Canadiens vs. Lightning Team Stats
The first thing we need to acknowledge is that the numbers behind the first two games are odd. Well, perhaps “odd” isn’t the right term, but they’re clearly based on limited data.
Such is life when doing analysis in the playoffs.
With that in mind, underlying numbers were developed to get a better idea of how a team—or individuals—are performing in exactly this scenario: limited data.
As per usual, we will discuss four different statistics. The first is Corsi For (CF%), which I often label as ‘shot share’, since it’s a lot more descriptive, but in this case I used the abbreviated version for ease of viewing. We will also discuss Montreal’s share of high-danger scoring chances (HDCF%), their expected goal share (xGF%), and actual goal share (GF%) at 5v5.
Through two games, the Lightning have outshot the Habs by a considerable margin, a fact that will be reflected when evaluating the forward lines. The Canadiens have only managed to control 39.7% of the shots (66-100), which can only be described as concerning.
The Habs have also only managed to score two goals at 5v5, both of which were provided by fourth-line forward Josh Anderson. Overall, the Lightning haven’t lit up the lamp ad nauseam at 5v5 either, but they have scored twice as many goals as the Habs.
As for the expected goals, they represent a much more encouraging split for Montreal. The Canadiens have a considerable advantage, and have controlled almost 54% of the expected goals.
One of the reasons behind the discrepancy in expected goals and shot share is that the Canadiens have done an excellent job controlling the high-danger chances, to the tune of 72% (18-7). This isn’t just a huge positive, it’s a complete reversal of Montreal’s high-quality scoring chances fortune. Traditionally, the Habs struggle to generate many quality scoring chances, regardless of their opponents.
Canadiens Forward Lines At 5v5
The biggest issue facing the Habs is clearly their lack of goals at 5v5. The first line, in particular, needs to start scoring at 5v5 if the Canadiens are to find success in this series.
You could argue the second and third lines also need to provide some semblance of offence, but the onus is on the team’s best forwards to get the ball going at 5v5. Fortunately, they are doing a decent job controlling the better chances, but the volume isn’t enough to compensate for their lack of shooting luck.
For the most part, whenever head coach Martin St-Louis puts the first line on the ice, Jon Cooper quickly counters with the Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli, and Jake Guentzel line, which has outscored the Habs 3-0 at 5v5.
Additionally, only one line has managed to control 50% of the shots, another considerable team-wide concern. This is mitigated by the overall share of high-quality scoring chances, which is reflected in the expected goals.
Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks
Unfortunately for the Habs, shot volume is very important when it comes to winning a series. Though they hold the advantage in quality, a higher quantity of shots will be necessary if they want to start scoring more goals at 5v5.
If the Canadiens can manage to put a few more pucks on net, the rest of the numbers suggest they’ll hold a significant advantage in the remaining games of the series, perhaps enough to secure an underdog victory against a much more experienced opponent.
To do so, they’ll have to rely on their first line resuming the dominance it showed on a nightly basis during the regular season, along with a little help from St. Louis, who will now have the last change with the series heading back to the Bell Centre.
Keeping Tampa Bay’s top line away from their own top players is likely the best path to success.
All Montreal Canadiens statistics are 5v5, via Natural Stat Trick.
