Marc Dumont
Now that the Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres have each managed to win a pair of games in their second-round series, it’s time to take a look at some of the numbers behind the exciting match up.
While the Canadiens have outscored the Sabres considerably, especially at 5v5, it’s worth noting the underlying numbers point to a Buffalo team that has the ability to regain control of the series.
Canadiens Vs. Sabres At 5v5
Unlike the series versus the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Canadiens are actually outshooting their opponents in the second round, but not by a very wide margin.
As it stands, the Habs have a 51.9% advantage in shots (162-150), not to mention a 55.7% advantage in shots on net (78-62). This has led to a 9-5 advantage in goals scored at 5v5, a very solid output from a team that has received little to no 5v5 goals from its first line.
Once we dig a little further, it becomes clear the Sabres have done more with their shots, as they have managed to generate a couple more high-danger scoring chances than the Canadiens (38-36), giving them a 52.8% share of the expected goals.
Simply put, the Canadiens are working off quantity, while the Sabres are focusing on quality.
Special Teams Impact
Head coach Martin St-Louis did not mince words when discussing the Game 4 loss.
“I feel like special teams played a huge part,” said St-Louis. “It’s hard to believe we only got one goal on the powerplay. I felt like we had a lot of chances. Our captain and goalie had a good game, Dobes kept us in too. Our start was not good.”
Let’s unpack that statement in segments.
He’s absolutely right the special teams played a huge part.
Montreal had seven powerplay opportunities, and managed to score on just one, whereas the Sabres scored twice in four man advantages.
A little more traffic in front of the Sabres netminder would likely yield additional second-chance scoring opportunities, but for the most part, they’re generating a reasonable number quality scoring chances on the powerplay. They simply lacked finish on Tuesday.
As for his captain, it’s worth noting the first line had a dominant game from a statistical standpoint. While Nick Suzuki, Juraj Slafkovsky, and Cole Caufield were on the ice, the Habs controlled over 80% of the shots and 75% of the high-danger scoring chances. It was a good game from a process standpoint, but now that the Canadiens are in the second round of the playoffs, the results are more important than solid underlying numbers.
The first line has to start to produce, and they have no grace period left to get there.
Fortunately, all signs point to that trio being ready to explode from an offensive standpoint.
For the third comment, in regard to their poor start, you would be hard-pressed to disagree with the head coach, but it’s also fair to say that falls under the preparation category, and that duty belongs, at least in part, to the coaching staff.
Truth be told, there’s always room for improvement, but all things considered, the Canadiens being two wins away from the Eastern Conference Final just a few years into their rebuild is incredibly encouraging.
And if they can continue to be a dominant goal-scoring force at 5v5, they’ll go a long way in gaining a crucial advantage in the remaining three-game series, but they’ll need a little help from their special teams friends to achieve this impressive feat.
All Montreal Canadiens statistics via Natural Stat Trick.
