Marc Dumont
With the series between the Montreal Canadiens and the Tampa Bay Lightning tied at two games a piece, it’s become apparent that any minor advantage will play a major part in deciding the winner.
In that vein, Habs fans will be quick to point to the first line’s lack of goal scoring as a cause for concern.
And while we can’t ignore Juraj Slafkovsky‘s hat-trick performance in Game 1, or Cole Caufield‘s goal in Game 4, it’s safe to say the shortage of offence at 5v5 has been a significant drag for the Habs.
In fact, Caufield, Slafkovsky, and Nick Suzuki are yet to register their name on the scoresheet at 5v5, a fairly big red flag for a team that usually depends on the first line to do most of their even-strength damage.
Fortunately for the Canadiens, they have received important offensive contributions from players such as Josh Anderson, Alexandre Texier, Zachary Bolduc, and Kirby Dach, however, the team will have a hard time emerging from the series victorious if the first line fails to find its rhythm.
First Line At 5v5
Lightning head coach Jon Cooper’s assignment matching has been fairly straightforward.
If Suzuki’s line jumps on the ice, he wants either Brandon Hagel or Anthony Cirelli to follow suit.
Of the 56 minutes of ice time at 5v5 he’s accumulated so far in the series, Suzuki has faced Hagel for 36 minutes, and Cirelli for 35 minutes. Other players have been tasked with watching Suzuki’s trio, but for the most part, Hagel or Cirelli have led the charge.
And the impact has been overwhelming.
While facing Hagel, Suzuki has controlled just 38% of the shots, 33% of the expected goals, and 33% of the high-danger scoring chances.
Away from Hagel, Suzuki controlled 60.7% of the shots, 61.2% of the expected goals, and 80% of the high-danger shots.
In other words, it’s the difference between below-replacement results and elite numbers.
Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks
One of the greatest areas of concern is the lack of shots from the first line. They were never a high-volume trio, but they’ve essentially become a non-shooting threat versus the Lightning.
For the record, Caufield was leading the Montreal Canadiens in shots per 60 during the regular season, with 9.1. It was the main driving force behind his 51 goals scored, the second most in the league.
In the playoffs, he’s taking almost 75% fewer shots at 5v5, to the tune of just 2.3 per 60. It’s the second-lowest shots per 60 in the entire lineup, with only Alexandre Carrier trailing behind Caufield.
Both Slafkovsky and Suzuki have suffered a considerable downtick as well, but the percentage isn’t as alarming, as their shot volume was already much lower than what Caufield offered on a nightly basis.
Montreal Canadiens Solutions
It’s a little too easy to suggest the first line should simply do better. They should simply take more shots.
And yet, that’s probably the only legitimate answer available at the moment, as Cooper has already made it clear that they won’t be able to get away from playing against Hagel and Company.
Such is life in the NHL playoffs.
It can seem harsh, especially when we consider the players in question have done great on the powerplay, but failing to score at 5v5 is considerable drag, no matter how you cut it.
Star players do not get a pass simply because the assignment becomes more difficult.
The lack of time and space in the neutral zone has essentially neutered Montreal’s first line, and until they find a way to build up more speed in transition, and consequently, more shots off the rush, their 5v5 scoring drought will remain the biggest sticking point for the Canadiens.
All Montreal Canadiens statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted, via Natural Stat Trick.
