Marc Dumont
With the series between the Montreal Canadiens and the Tampa Bay Lightning tied, it’s the perfect opportunity to evaluate some of the key statistics.
As a follow-up to our article discussing the team’s forward lines, we will delve into the play of the team’s defensive pairings
Before we get going, it’s important to note that the loss of Noah Dobson cannot be overstated. On the flip side of the coin, the Lightning are playing without Victor Hedman, which makes it a relatively fair exchange of lost soldiers, however, given that Hedman had already missed the majority of the regular season, Tampa Bay is used to playing without him.
Playing without Dobson in the lineup, a player who featured in 80 regular season games, has presented a significant challenge for the Habs.
Habs Defencemen At 5v5
As noted in the article analyzing forwards, there has been quite the discrepancy in underlying numbers after just two games in the series.
This is par for the course when analyzing playoff hockey, but it comes with the caveat that the numbers can change in a hurry once another game’s worth of data is added to the mix.
The Canadiens have controlled less than 40% of the shots, and 33% of the goals, while having a clear-cut edge in expected goal share and high-danger shot share.
As for the defencemen, there’s also a chasmic gap in results. The top four has, for a lack of a better word, struggled. They’re getting outshot, and outscored by a wide margin at 5v5.
On a more positive note, the Jayden Struble and Arber Xhekaj pairing has been flat-out elite. Yes, they’re facing a lower quality of competition, but you never want to look a gift horse in the mouth, especially in the playoffs.
The fact of the matter is that when the third pairing is on the ice, the Habs outshoot, outchance, and outplay their opponents.
Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks
It’s very easy to simply suggest the Montreal Canadiens need better results from their top four.
However, head coach Martin St-Louis has limited options, especially if he wants to keep his excellent third pairing together.
Based on their experience in the last two seasons, I’d argue it may be worth reuniting Matheson and Hutson. In over 500 minutes together at 5v5, they held a 54.9% advantage in shots. They also outscored their opponents, to the tune of 32-21 (61.1%).
This would lead to Alexandre Carrier and Kaiden Guhle having to take on some of the more difficult minutes, though, based on their history, they’re fairly well suited to absorb hellish assignments.
In over 600 minutes together at 5v5, Guhle and Carrier almost managed to break even, controlling 49.6% of the shots. They also outscored their opponents (56%), and held an edge in high-danger scoring chances (53%).
With the changes in place, the Canadiens’ defensive parings would be as follows:
Lane Hutson – Mike Matheson
Kaiden Guhle – Alexander Carrier
Jayden Struble – Arber Xhekaj.
This was actually the same setup St-Louis intended on playing in Game Two, before things were derailed by the usual post-whistle shenanigans, forcing the special teams to spend an unreasonable amount of time on the ice.
Regardless, according to the numbers, if the Canadiens can somehow find a way to keep the pairings listed above intact, they’ll improve their odds of emerging from the series with an underdog victory.
All Montreal Canadiens statistics are 5v5, via Natural Stat Trick.
