Marc Dumont
The Montreal Canadiens made waves in the 2026 NHL Playoffs, but now they must ensure their upward trajectory continues, and that includes analyzing every available free agent, including A.J. Greer.
To be clear, Greer is not a free agent, yet.
But the Florida Panthers are expected to let him walk, and given that he’s a Quebec native who knows how to score goals, and is coming off the best season of his career, there will surely be interest in Montreal.
A.J. Greer 2025-26
The first thing that stands out from Greer’s season is that he almost doubled his point totals from the previous year.
The 29-year-old left-winger scored six goals and 11 assists in 81 games in 2024-25, a career best at the time. He would go on to secure 17 goals and 15 assists in 78 games last season, a significant step forward for a player who was never considered a reliable source of secondary and tertiary offence.
Another way of looking at it would be to point out Greer scored 19 goals and 30 assists in his first 248 games in the league, and then followed it up with 17 goals and 15 assists in his most recent season.
It’s not necessarily a bad sign, as improved offence is always a positive factor, but the key is whether or not it was a flash in the pan, or a sustainable situation.
While Greer is considered a fourth-line forward, due to Florida’s long list of injuries, he was often used in the top six. In fact, his most common linemate was none other than 2024-25 Conn Smythe winner, Sam Bennett.
His production alongside various centres tells the tale of his season.
It’s not that Greer played poorly, quite to the contrary. He capitalized on an opportunity to play with some skilled players, improving his production rate considerably in the process.
But when analyzing his potential impact with the Canadiens, we must acknowledge that he is unlikely to play on the first line, with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield.
There were a lot of moving parts in Florida last season, but Greer ended up playing with four centres more frequently than others: Bennett, Evan Rodrigues, Carter Verhaeghe, and Eetu Luostarinen. The discrepancy in production at 5v5 when playing alongside various centres is impossible to ignore.
Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks
Seeing as Greer scored with a much higher frequency while playing in the top six, we must guard against suggesting he will enjoy the same type of production with his new team.
It will be highly dependent on his usage.
But it’s important to remember that when he plays in the bottom six, his likely role with the Habs, he scores at a bottom-six pace.
The good news is that Greer’s underlying numbers were quite encouraging regardless of where he played, which suggests his impact went beyond just his elevated production His shot share (CF%) and expected goal share (xGF%) were well above average.
In that vein, we can expect Greer to command a salary similar to the deal offered to former Hab Michael McCarron. The Minnesota Wild offered the 31-year-old bottom-six forward a six-year deal that carries a $3.33 million annual average value (AAV), following a season that saw him score eight goals and nine assists in 79 games.
Not only did Greer produce much more than McCarron, he maintained significantly better underlying numbers.
AFP Analytics projects Greer’s upcoming contract to be in the $2.8 million AAV range, but with the salary cap on the rise, a dearth of talent in the league, and recent contracts in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him offered a deal in the $4 million AAV range.
And that’s where things become complicated.
It will be Greer’s best, and perhaps only opportunity to sign a rich, long-term deal, and there will be plenty of teams bidding for his services.
The risk is that teams will become so infatuated with his improved production, that they’ll ignore is inflated shooting percentage, or his usage by the Panthers throughout the year.
It’s not that A.J. Greer is a bad player, but the numbers tell us that last season was more of an outlier than a sign of things to come.
The saving grace could end up being his style of play, as he loves to score on second-chance opportunities, wraparounds, and rebounds, the type of hard-working goals that Canadiens head coach Martin St-Louis loves to see. He’s also managed to outwork his opponents on a few occasions, scoring goals directly off the faceoff in consecutive years.
When evaluating his scoring plays in the last two seasons, Greer stands out as a similar player to Brendan Gallagher in his prime, though with a much lower scoring rate, and a sturdier frame.
All A.J. Greer and Montreal Canadiens statistics via Natural Stat Trick.
