The stage is set for Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, a matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots. Just over a decade after the unforgettable Super Bowl XLIX, which saw the Patriots beat the Seahawks to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, we now get a rematch with these teams looking very different this time around.
Let’s dive into our Super Bowl LX predictions for the matchup between the Seahawks vs Patriots.
New England Patriots Held Under 70 Rushing Yards
The rushing totals being put up by the Patriots offense during the NFL playoffs—130.7 rushing yards per game—are not necessarily bad. The issue, however, is what happens when you remove Drake Maye from the equation. Excluding Maye, the Patriots averaged 83.7 rushing yards per game and a 3.3 yards-per-carry average. That is a big problem for this Super Bowl matchup.
Seattle boasted the best run defense in the NFL during the regular season, allowing just 3.7 yards per carry (first) and 91.9 rushing yards per game (third), with nine rushing touchdowns allowed (second). They also ranked first in Rush EPA (-.206) and Success Rate allowed (35.8%). Putting that Rush EPA into perspective, the gap between Seattle and the second-best team was as wide as the gap between second and 18th place.
Maye might have some success on the ground, as Seattle allowed 5.3 yards per carry to quarterbacks this season, but Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson are going to be shut down. It will essentially make the Patriots offense one-dimensional.
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HEADING
Sam Darnold is coming off an absolute passing clinic in the NFC Championship Game, exorcising his demons against the Los Angeles Rams defense. In two postseason starts this year, he has posted a 110-plus passer rating in both games and completed at least 69 percent of his passes while averaging over 7 yards per attempt. There is no reason right now to think he will implode under the pressure of playing in Super Bowl LX.
With that said, New England’s defense is playing ultra-aggressively this postseason. The Patriots generated a 36.4 percent blitz rate on Justin Herbert in the Wild Card Game, a 38.9 percent blitz rate on C.J. Stroud in the Divisional Round, and a blitz rate just under 50 percent on Jarrett Stidham in the AFC Championship Game. During the regular season, Darnold tied for the most interceptions (eight) when blitzed among qualified starters, and he had the sixth-highest Turnover-Worthy Play rate (5.2 percent). New England’s opportunistic defense will force Darnold into an interception.
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Drake Maye Throws 2 Touchdowns
It’s been an ugly postseason for Maye as a passer. Through three games, he’s completed just 55.8 percent of his 77 pass attempts with an 84.0 passer rating and 443 net passing yards. New England has scored 17-plus points just once in those three games.
We will see something closer to the MVP-caliber version of Maye in the Super Bowl. He is facing the best defense in the NFL, but Seattle has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in eight games from the regular season through the playoffs. Aided by a Sam Darnold turnover that puts the Patriots offense in Seahawks territory, Maye will deliver a pair of passing touchdowns in the Super Bowl.
Seattle Seahawks Win Super Bowl LX
We are expecting a low-scoring Super Bowl matchup. Seattle boasts the league’s best defense and a rushing attack, led by Kenneth Walker III, that can chew up the clock and limit how much time the Patriots offense spends on the field. With that said, the healthy version of New England’s defense also matches up fairly well with the Seahawks, and it is not as if Seattle has an elite quarterback or a loaded cast of offensive weapons to cause problems for New England’s secondary.
What this comes down to is which team has the better roster and superior coaching. Both of those go in Seattle’s favor, and they have the most dominant unit in the game. Pair all that with excellent special teams and one outstanding playmaker, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and you have the ingredients for a Super Bowl champion.
- Prediction: Seattle Seahawks 23, New England Patriots 17
