NFL Week 18 delivers the final weekend for the regular season in the National Football League. While a majority of the playoff spots are locked up, there are still a few games on the NFL schedule this weekend that carry a lot of importance.
Before the action kicks off on Saturday and Sunday, we’re delivering a few bold predictions for NFL Week 18. The focus for our picks will be on the games that either carry importance for the playoff picture or could involve an important statistical milestone.
Baker Mayfield Delivers Fourth-Quarter Rally to Beat Carolina
Performances by both teams in the second half of the season and plenty of NFL stats point to the Carolina Panthers winning this game to clinch the NFC South. After all, Panthers defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero loves to bait quarterbacks into throwing deep and Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL when throwing deep since November. Carolina also has the screen game to exploit Tampa Bay’s biggest weakness defensively. Still, this game will be close enough that it comes down to the fourth quarter. With the Buccaneers’ season on the line, as he did early in the year, we think Mayfield rallies and hits Mike Evans for a late go-ahead touchdown that proves to be the deciding score.
Related: NFL Week 18 Predictions for Every Game
Seattle Seahawks Ride the Run Game to NFC’s No. 1 Seed
Running the football effectively has been quite an issue for this Seattle Seahawks offense. From Weeks 1–7, Seattle averaged just 75.7 rushing yards per game and a 3.3 yards-per-carry average while ranking 26th in Rushing Success Rate (36.7 percent) and 29th in Rush EPA (-0.169). However, coming out of the Week 8 bye, the Seahawks have averaged 108.9 rushing yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry, and they ranked 17th in Rush Success Rate (41.9 percent) and 11th in Rush EPA (-0.007).
Related: NFL Defense Rankings Entering Week 18
While all of the focus in this matchup is rightfully on Seattle’s defense versus the San Francisco 49ers’ offense, it will be the Seahawks’ ability to run the football that decides this game. Entering Week 18, the 49ers have allowed 4.6 yards per carry, and they have allowed the highest Rush Success Rate (51.8 percent) in the NFL since Week 9. Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet will prove crucial to Seattle winning and clinching the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
Atlanta Falcons beat the Saints, Send Carolina Panthers to Playoffs
The Panthers can lose in Week 18 and still be declared NFC South champions and host a playoff game. It would require the Atlanta Falcons coming out on top against the New Orleans Saints and that’s precisely what we think happens. Inexplicably, since 2018, the Falcons are 12-4 after being mathematically eliminated from playoff contention and the team has maintained that ability to shine in meaningless games under Raheem Morris. In a battle between two of the hottest teams in the NFL, Bijan Robinson and a very effective blitz-happy Falcons defense will beat the Saints. In a three-way tie, Carolina wins the division.
Myles Garrett Won’t Break the Single-Season Sack Record
We did say these would be bold NFL predictions for Week 18. Just a few weeks ago, it seemed inevitable that Cleveland Browns edge rusher Myles Garrett would shatter the single-season record for most sacks (22.5). After all, he had 18 sacks through 11 games and 21.5 sacks with three games left in the season. Garrett now needs to record a sack of his own on Sunday to make NFL history. We’re saying it isn’t going to happen, with Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals doing everything they can to prevent their rival’s star from breaking the record.
Caleb Williams Becomes First 4,000-Yard Passer in Bears History
Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams have downplayed the significance of the second-year quarterback becoming the first player in franchise history to throw for 4,000 yards. In fairness, it is a statistical milestone that pales in comparison to the franchise’s success in making the playoffs and winning the NFC North in Johnson’s first year as head coach. With that said, this is also an infamous drought that the franchise would likely love to put to bed for good. Williams is currently 270 passing yards shy of 4,000, and his season average (233.1 passing yards per game) would indicate he will fall well short. However, facing a Detroit Lions’ defense that allowed 313.2 passing yards per game from Weeks 12–16, we think Johnson will help Williams reach 4,000 passing yards on the season.
Baltimore Ravens Win the AFC North on Sunday Night Football
The DK Metcalf suspension is ultimately going to be what keeps the Pittsburgh Steelers out of the playoffs. In the last meeting between these two AFC North rivals, Metcalf accounted for 46.5 percent of the Steelers’ total yardage. To make matters worse for Pittsburgh, the team is also missing Darnell Washington, whose absence deals a massive blow to the rushing attack. It is not as if we have a ton of confidence in the Baltimore Ravens as a team right now; however, Pittsburgh simply has very little going for it offensively without Metcalf and Washington. In a low-scoring Sunday Night Football game, Baltimore will clinch the division convincingly.
