We got another upset on the NFL schedule on Sunday, with the Miami DOlphins stunning the Buffalo Bills. It;s a reminder as we make our NFL picks this week that the 2025 NFL season has been pretty unpredictable and that coould prove to be the case once again as we looking ahead to the upcoming slate.
Let’s dive into our NFL Week 11 Predictions, delivering picks and score projections for every game on the NFL schedule this coming week.
New England Patriots 28, New York Jets 13
The Garrett Wilson injury (knee) is just another factor working against the New York Jets in this Thursday Night Football matchup. Making things worse for the Jets, they are facing a New England Patriots team that has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game (79.2) this season and the second-lowest yards per carry (3.8). If all of that isn’t enough to make this a bad matchup for New York, with its issues defending deep passes, New England has all the advantages to win this one comfortably.
Miami Dolphins 31, Washington Commanders 20
The Miami Dolphins are riding high after Sunday’s win versus the Bills, and they now have a golden opportunity to make it consecutive victories. That’s in large part because defensively, the Washington Commanders are surrendering 38.5 points and 451.3 total yards per game over the last month, with the highest yards-per-play average allowed (7.37) in the NFL. Without Terry McLaurin and Jayden Daniels, there’s not remotely enough teeth to the Commanders’ offense to put up a competitive fight. It should be a great Sunday for Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins.
Atlanta Falcons 23, Carolina Panthers 17
The Atlanta Falcons will certainly try to follow the same game plan that opponents have recently used against the Carolina Panthers: stacking the box to contain Rico Dowdle and forcing Bryce Young to beat them. Atlanta will also have to sell out to defend the run, given it is allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game (124.4) this season. Even if Dowdle is successful, Atlanta can attack a Panthers defense that has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards (704) to tight ends this season. We’ll also note Bijan Robinson could take advantage of Carolina, given it has allowed 157 rushing yards per game with a 4.9 yards-per-carry average in the last three weeks. The Falcons’ skill-player talent wins out in this game.
Buffalo Bills 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21
The Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are both coming off tough losses, making the stakes for this Week 11 matchup higher since the defeated team will be 6-4 and then battling for a wild card spot. What Tampa Bay hasn’t had this season without Bucky Irving is the rushing attack to exploit the biggest vulnerability of the Bills defense (153.2 rush ypg allowed, most in the NFL). On the other hand, Buffalo’s receiving corps might not win a ton of matchups against Tampa Bay’s secondary. Ultimately, with the Buccaneers missing their top three offensive weapons (Irving, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin), a ground game led by Josh Allen and James Cook should be enough to take down Tampa Bay.
Houston Texans 23, Tennessee Titans 6
The last time Cam Ward faced the Houston Texans, he walked off the field having lost a 26-0 shutout. It’s difficult to find any reason why things would be that different in Week 11. The Tennessee Titans still can’t pass protect, and that’s a death sentence against the Texans pass rush, especially with the huge advantages Houston has over Tennessee in the secondary. Jeffery Simmons might cause some havoc against the Texans offensive line, but that’s only if he plays in Week 11. Houston’s defense nearly pitches another shutout, with multiple takeaways helping set up a few scoring drives for the Texans offense.
Chicago Bears 27, Minnesota Vikings 24
The Chicago Bears held a 17-6 lead at home versus the Minnesota Vikings in the regular-season opener. Then, J.J. McCarthy rallied back in his first NFL start for a 27-24 victory. Since then, the Bears defense has gotten much worse thanks to injuries, but Williams leads the NFL in game-winning drives and fourth-quarter comebacks. The trouble for Minnesota is it starts hot early in games as of late and then cools off drastically (8.7 points per second half in the last three games). That’s a recipe for Minnesota to go up early against Chicago and then periodically let its lead collapse as it gets further and further away from the game plan. Williams leads another fourth-quarter comeback, getting his revenge on the Vikings.
Green Bay Packers 31, New York Giants 20
With Jaxson Dart (concussion) potentially sidelined for this Week 11 matchup, it gets a lot less interesting. The New York Giants don’t have the power run game to cause difficulties for this Green Bay Packers defense, and Russell Wilson’s penchant for holding onto the football too long will give Micah Parsons a shot at a multi-sack game. On top of that, for as inconsistent as this Packers offense can be, it can have success running on New York (152.1 rush ypg and 5.5 ypc allowed) and attack the Giants secondary downfield.
Pittsburgh Steelers 34, Cincinnati Bengals 31
Why not a similar outcome to the game we saw a few weeks ago between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals? It was evident that the Steelers secondary stood little chance in coverage versus Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase, something that feels unlikely to change in Week 11. As for Cincinnati’s defense, it is allowing the most points per game and yards per play over the last month. This time around, the Steelers defense gets just the one stop it needs for Aaron Rodgers to beat Joe Flacco.
Los Angeles Chargers 24, Jacksonville Jaguars 17
The Los Angeles Chargers are in trouble against opponents who can get after the quarterback and pound the rock. Jacksonville’s defense has just 6 sacks in the last six games on over 230 dropbacks by its opponents. Furthermore, the Jaguars offense is averaging just 101.4 rushing yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry in the last five contests. Jacksonville simply doesn’t have what it needs to beat Los Angeles.
Seattle Seahawks 20, Los Angeles Rams 17
This is our favorite game on the NFL schedule this week. The last time the Los Angeles Rams faced Sam Darnold, they utterly destroyed him in the Wild Card Round with 9 sacks taken and 2 turnovers. Given the Seattle Seahawks likely won’t be able to run the ball efficiently versus Los Angeles (3.9 yards per carry allowed), that puts more pressure on Darnold’s shoulders. The Rams do have the quarterback advantage in this one, but we expect the best defense in the NFL to deliver a Seahawks victory.
Related: NFL Defense Rankings 2025
Arizona Cardinals 28, San Francisco 49ers 27
The Arizona Cardinals lost in heartbreaking fashion to the San Francisco 49ers, 16-15, in their meeting back in September. Fast forward to Week 11, the 49ers defense has been destroyed by injuries, and Arizona is starting a quarterback who executes this offense more effectively. Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle will almost lead San Francisco to victory, but it will be the big plays from Marvin Harrison Jr and Trey McBride that win it for Arizona at home.
Baltimore Ravens 24, Cleveland Browns 13
There’s not a ton that needs to be said about this matchup. What is worth noting is that, what once used to be the league’s worst defense, has allowed just 14.5 points per game in the last four contests. While plenty of that could be attributed to the opponents faced, there isn’t a single thing about a Dillon Gabriel-led offense that should worry Baltimore.
Kansas City Chiefs 21, Denver Broncos 14
The Denver Broncos enter Week 11 with an 8-2 record, but recent performances versus the Jets (13-11), Texans (18-15), and Raiders (10-7) have raised significant questions about this club’s legitimacy. For as much as we like Denver’s defense, what we don’t trust is Bo Nix versus Steve Spagnuolo. Patrick Mahomes just needs Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce to get open a few times, with Denver likely missing Pat Surtain, to come out of this with a crucial road win.
Detroit Lions 31, Philadelphia Eagles 28
It’s a must-see Sunday Night Football game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions in Week 11. It’s also a great test of one team’s strength (Jalen Carter) versus its opponent’s weakness (Lions offensive line) and visa-versa on the other side with Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta taking on the Eagles defense. While the Eagles have the home-field advantage, Dan Campbell’s taking over play-calling gives us more faith in the Lions pulling out the primetime victory.
Dallas Cowboys 31, Las Vegas Raiders 27
We still have just enough confidence in this Dallas Cowboys offense to believe they will put out a win on Monday Night Football. This will also be the team’s first game back since the tragic passing of teammate Marshawn Kneeland and after a bye week to mourn, the locker room now gets to honor a part of their family by playing in Kneeland’s name. We’re anticipating a very motivated Cowboys team on Monday Night Football in Week 11, one that with the additions of Logan Wilson and Quinnen Williams, gets the defensive stops it needs to seal a victory.
