Scott Gulbransen
Thursday afternoon, 4:30 PM Pacific, the Las Vegas Raiders find out who they’re playing and when. The league office already spoiled the suspense on the degree of difficulty.
Brutal is the word.
Why Raiders Schedule Isn’t Doing Their Rebuild Any Favors
By the NFL’s own math, only six teams drew worse. The Raiders’ opponents went a combined .529 last season, which lands them at the seventh-toughest strength of schedule in the league for 2026. Nine of those opponents played in January. The AFC West gets you Kansas City, Denver and the Chargers twice apiece, and that’s before the calendar drops in Buffalo, New England, the Rams, Seattle and San Francisco for good measure.
Nobody in the national media is hiding what they think happens next.
Just Blog Baby came out swinging this week with a piece arguing that anyone expecting the Silver and Black to crash the playoff party in 2026 is going to get their heart broken. The site acknowledged the offseason raised the floor, then immediately pointed out that a higher floor doesn’t matter much when the ceiling is Patrick Mahomes twice a year.
Warren Sharp over at Sharp Football Analysis went a different route entirely. He threw out the traditional method of using last year’s records and built his rankings around Vegas win totals instead, which factor in roster changes between February and now. Sharp’s model has the Raiders at a 5.5-win projection, meaning the bookmakers see the upgrades but don’t yet see a contender.
Related: Raiders Rookie Minicamp 2026: Fernando Mendoza Already Looks Like the Guy
Pick a Methodology, Pick Your Pain.
The AFC West is the part that should keep Raider fans up at night. Las Vegas hasn’t seen a playoff game since the 2021 wild card weekend in Cincinnati. Kansas City had what counts as a down year for them and the Chiefs don’t stay down for long, which everyone in football knows by now. Denver won the division outright. The Chargers got into the bracket, too. Six divisional games, every one of them against a team that played meaningful football past New Year’s Day.
The home slate doesn’t get any easier when you leave the division. Allegiant Stadium will host Buffalo, the Rams and Seattle in addition to the AFC West gauntlet, which adds up to six of eight home games against teams expected to be above .500.
Klint Kubiak has been making the rounds preaching no excuses, and that’s commendable, but the schedule doesn’t care about messaging. Tyler Linderbaum is real. Kirk Cousins buying Fernando Mendoza a year to learn is real. The four defensive backs the front office drafted are real and they’re probably going to play. All of those things can be true and Las Vegas can still come out of this thing 6-11 because of who’s on the other sideline most weeks.
National media has decided the playoffs are 2027 business. The schedule lands Thursday and we find out if there’s any reasonable argument to the contrary.
