Matt Johnson
Monday delivered plenty of action in NFL free agency, with the likes of Kenneth Walker III, Mike Evans, Travis Etienne and Wan’Dale Robinson finding new homes. We also got a few surprises in the first wave of move as Alec Pierce and Rashid Shaheed re-signed with their respective teams.
While many are focused on the real-life impact of these moves, we’re delivering a little early fantasy football analysis months out from the 2026. That leads us to looking at the winners and losers from a fantasy perspective from the early moves in NFL free agency.
Winner: Mike Evans
Mike Evans wanted to play in a great offense with a top-end quarterback while competing for a Super Bowl and receiving plenty of targets. Mission accomplished. In 2025, Brock Purdy led the NFL in completion rate on throws 20-plus yards downfield (52.9 percent) and he led all quarterbacks in On-Target rate (82.2 percent) on all throws. Evans should see 100-plus targets in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, a slight uptick over what Jauan Jennings drew (90) last season when he finished with 55 receptions and 9 touchdowns. We do believe Evans has a good shot at 900-plus receiving yards with double-digit touchdowns in 2026, making him a high-end WR2 as long as the substation outside the practice facility doesn’t lead to an injury.
Related: NFL Free Agency Predictions for Top NFL Free Agents on Day 2
Loser: Bucky Irving
After putting up 1,514 scrimmage yards with 8 total touchdowns in his rookie season, Bucky Irving played in just 10 games last year and put up 865 scrimmage yards. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers‘ new offensive coordinator, Zac Robinson, spoke highly of Irving after being hired. Actions speak louder than words. Tampa Bay gave $14 million to Kenneth Gainwell, who is one of the best pass-catching backs in the NFL and is coming off a campaign where he averaged 4.7 yards per carry on 114 attempts. Irving, who has 77 career receptions in two seasons, suddenly loses his role on receiving downs. It also means this 5-foot-10 and 195-pound running back will be exposed more to hits running into the trenches, which doesn’t bode well for his durability. After being an RB1 in his rookie season, it now seems like Irving (coming off shoulder surgery) will now be a mid-tier RB2 who doesn’t offer much upside in PPR scoring for fantasy football managers.
Related: Worst Contracts from NFL Free Agency Day One
Winner: Michael Pittman Jr
We’re including Michael Pittman Jr. among the winners from a fantasy football perspective on the assumption that Aaron Rodgers returns for the 2026 NFL season. In 2025, the Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback had the lowest intended air yards per pass attempt (6.0) among starting quarterbacks with the highest rate of throws behind the line of scrimmage (22.8 percent), and he ranked 13th in short throws (43.9 percent). Meanwhile, Pittman is coming off a season where he ranked 82nd in average target distance (aDOT) with 86 first-read targets. He is perfect for Rodgers’ desire to get the football out of his hands quickly. Pittman is going to be a very good WR2 in PPR scoring, and we’d draft him as much as we can if Rodgers is back.
Related: Winners, Losers from NFL Free Agency Day One
Loser: Trey Benson
Many loved Trey Benson entering the 2024 NFL Draft, and he seemed to land in a decent spot with the Arizona Cardinals as the 66th overall pick. He showed some promise as a rookie but on limited touches, averaging 4.6 yards per carry on 63 attempts. A season-ending injury to James Conner early in the 2025 season opened the door for Benson to become the guy in Arizona’s backfield. Unfortunately, he suffered a meniscus injury in Week 4 and never returned to the practice field. Weeks into taking over as head coach, Mike LaFleur had the team re-sign Conner and then sign Tyler Allgeier to a two-year deal with $12.25 million in total value. The new Cardinals coaching staff is out on Benson, and he’s droppable in dynasty fantasy football leagues.
Winner: Kenneth Walker III
This was the dream scenario. The Kansas City Chiefs haven’t had an explosive element to their rushing attack in the last two years, even with the offensive line put back together in 2025. Fortunately for Patrick Mahomes and Co., Kenneth Walker III hit NFL free agency. We don’t think it would be totally wise for the Chiefs to make him a three-down featured back, as he’s never handled more than 255 touches in a regular season and the Seattle Seahawks had to operate a running-back-by-committee to preserve his durability and limit his boom-or-bust tendency as a runner. With that said, Walker can still be a low-end RB1 in fantasy football because he’ll be running behind a very good offensive line against defenses that are focused on stopping Patrick Mahomes. Temper expectations after that Super Bowl run, but Walker can still be a fringe top-10 fantasy running back.
Loser: Theo Johnson
Selected by the New York Giants with the 107th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, tight end Theo Johnson showed some promising flashes in his second season. He put up 528 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns on 45 receptions, averaging 11.7 yards per reception with an eight-game stretch (Weeks 7-18) when he averaged 50.3 receiving yards per game. Unfortunately for him, a new Giants coaching staff came in. John Harbaugh wanted a reunion with tight end Isaiah Likely, signing him to a three-year deal worth $40 million. New York has its receiving threat at tight end and its in-line blocker (Chris Manhertz). Johnson’s fantasy value is gone.
Winner: Travis Etienne
The top two running backs in NFL free agency both found good homes, and that’s not always a given. One reason we particularly like Travis Etienne heading to the New Orleans Saints is because the club also signed guard David Edwards, who rated as the 10th-best interior offensive lineman in ESPN’s run-block win rate (75 percent) last season. There are now three quality starters from left to center on the Saints’ offensive line, and the unit could be even better if right tackle Taliese Fuaga improves. Plus, head coach and offensive play-caller Kellen Moore has proven himself to be very adept at scheming up an effective rushing attack. Etienne can absolutely be a top-15 running back in fantasy football next season, something we didn’t expect to say before he signed with New Orleans.
