Jim Cerny
Maybe it’s not much of a leap to expect David Bailey to make a major impact for the New York Jets as a rookie this season. After all, the Jets used the No. 2 overall pick in this year’s draft on the 22-year-old edge defender, and then quickly inked him to a fully guaranteed four-year, $54.675 million contract to be a focal part of their defense in 2026 — and beyond.
ESPN’s Mike Clay is buying in, for sure. In his 2026 rookie projections, Clay predicts that Bailey will lead all NFL rookie defenders with 7.5 sacks this season. A year ago, as a Texas Tech senior, Bailey mauled the opposition to the tune of 14.5 sacks in 14 games, including three against Kansas on Oct. 11. He led the nation in sacks, paced the Big 12 with 19.5 tackles for loss, and was an All-American.
Prior to 2025, the 6-foot-3, 250-pound edge rusher totaled 14.5 sacks over 32 games in three seasons at Stanford. He ran a 4.5 40 at the NFL combine and is considered to be the most polished pass rusher in this year’s draft.
Clay cautioned that recent trends in the NFL show that even elite-level edge rushers typically don’t post explosive stats as rookies.
Rookies are averaging 106.0 sacks per season over the past decade, but the past two seasons (84.5 in 2024 and 100.0 in 2025) have been far below that average.
James Pearce Jr. led the way with 10.5 sacks last season, but no other rookie had more than 5.5, and only two others reached 5.0 (Jalon Walker and Nic Scourton). Micah Parsons’ 13.0 sacks in 2021 was the most by a rookie over the past decade, and only five other freshmen (including Pearce) reached double-digits. Four of the five were first-rounders. (Maxx Crosby was a fourth-rounder in 2019.)
That’s especially relevant considering that five edge rushers were drafted in the first round this year and is the reason why none of them is projected to clear 7.6 sacks.
Jets surround rookie David Bailey with quality depth on the edge
The Jets selected edge rushed Will McDonald III in the first round (No. 15 overall) in 2023. He had three sacks in 15 games as a rookie, and then broke out with 10.5 sacks in 2024. Last season, he had eight sacks, and should be a nice complement to Bailey on the edge in 2026.
In 2022, the Jets selected Jermaine Johnson with the No. 26 overall pick, and he produced 2.5 sacks as a rookie. He made the Pro Bowl the following season, when he had 7.5 sacks. The Jets traded Johnson to the Tennessee Titans this offseason for defensive tackle D’Vondre Sweat. That set the stage for the Jets to select Bailey with their first selection in the draft, even though they also added Joseph Ossai and Kingsley Enegbare in free agency.
Last week, ESPN named the Jets defensive line (including edge rushers) as an Honorable Mention for most improved position groups in the NFL since last season.
“The Jets’ total tonnage of additions in the defensive trenches is hard to argue with,” Ben Solak wrote.
And Bailey projects to be a massive part of that improved group.
New York was 3-14 last season, and Ryan Wilson of CBS Sports believes the Jets can win seven games this year, which, he believes, would allow coach Aaron Glenn to return for a third season in 2027.
