The Divisional Round matchups are set, with Saturday delivering us a playoff rematch from a year ago between the Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos. It’s an opportunity at home for the Broncos while the Bills seek to pave their path to the Super Bowl all coming on the road.
Let’s dive into our predictions for this Bills vs Broncos clash in the Divisional Round.
Denver Broncos RBs Finish with Less Than 80 Rushing Yards
One of the biggest vulnerabilities of this Bills’ defense is its issues against the run. Including the Wild Card Round victory, eight different opponents have rushed for 150-plus yards versus Buffalo, and each averaged 5.2 yards per carry or higher in those games. On the surface, it would seem like something Denver should be able to exploit. Unfortunately for Sean Payton, the ground game has been an issue for the Broncos’ offense.
Related: NFL Defense Rankings after Divisional Round
Prior to the season-ending injury suffered by J.K. Dobbins in Week 10, Denver ranked a modest 14th in Rush EPA (-0.034) and 17th in Success Rate (41.7 percent) while averaging 128.6 rushing yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry. From Weeks 11 through 18, Denver averaged just 104.6 rushing yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry, ranking 22nd in Rush EPA (-0.123). Maybe things will be different with a healthier offensive line, but we suspect Denver will struggle to generate explosive plays on the ground and will largely be unable to exploit Buffalo’s greatest weakness.
Josh Allen is Held Under 200 Net Passing Yards
After a phenomenal first half of the season, Denver’s defense actually started to dip as the regular season neared its conclusion. Opponents started to take better advantage of a secondary that played man coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL, with Broncos’ opponents averaging 244.3 pass ypg with an 8-3 TD-INT ratio from Weeks 13-16.
Read More: NFL Power Rankings after Wild Card Weekend, Ranking the Playoff Teams
Unfortunately for Josh Allen, the Bills don’t really have receivers who can create that separation and win matchups against man coverage. Brandin Cooks, Khalil Shakir and Tyrell Shavers have all tended to struggle or just be adequate versus man coverage this season. With his wideouts struggling to create separation, Allen will fall below the 200-yard mark as he is forced to make more plays with his legs.
Bo Nix Rushes for 40+ Yards
In the last Bills vs. Broncos game, quarterback Bo Nix led the team with 43 rushing yards and had the longest carry (18 yards) of the day. We think that could happen again on Saturday in Denver. Buffalo allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game (22.2) to quarterbacks and the highest yards-per-carry average (6.5). With the way the Bills’ secondary has performed in coverage this season, allowing the fewest passing yards per game (156.9), Nix will be forced to use his legs more, and he will be very effective in doing so.
James Cook, Josh Allen Rally Buffalo to Victory
In the end, this game comes down to whom or what you trust the most. Denver has the best defense in this matchup, but it does not have the necessary strengths on offense to consistently exploit Buffalo’s defense and keep Josh Allen off the field. We do think the Broncos will hold James Cook under 100 rushing yards, as this is a top-five defense, but all it takes is one explosive run. That is what we are predicting happens. Cook rips off an explosive run in the fourth quarter, and then Allen uses his legs and strength in the red zone to punch in the go-ahead touchdown. Nix’s game-winning drive attempt will come up short, with Buffalo punching its ticket to the AFC Championship Game.
