The stage is set for the AFC Championship Game, with a matchup between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos on Sunday afternoon. It’s certainly not the AFC title game that everyone predicted coming into the season, but it’s fitting that the two best AFC teams in the regular season now meet head-to-head.
Let’s dive into our AFC Championship Game predictions, with each of our picks also providing stats and analysis to serve as a bit of a Patriots vs Broncos preview.
Denver Broncos, New England Patriots Go Scoreless in 1st Quarter
The Patriots have often gotten off to fast starts this season. In 2025, New England’s offense averaged the second-most points per first quarter (6.8). With Drake Maye’s ability to strike for big plays downfield and the late-season effectiveness from Rhamondre Stevenson, the Patriots have done a great job at starting hot. However, we think both teams will fail to put up points in the first quarter of the AFC Championship Game.
Against the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans, the Patriots offense put up 7 points and 75 total yards across six drives. New England turned it over on two of its six first-quarter possessions in the postseason and averaged just 3.6 yards per play. Facing a Broncos defense that allowed the 10th-fewest points per first quarter (3.9) during the regular season, the Patriots offense will stall on its early position on the road. Likewise, Jarrett Stidham will struggle to get anything going in his first start since Jan. 7, 2024, when he had just an 82.0 QB rating in Week 18 versus the Las Vegas Raiders.
Read More: NFL Defense Rankings 2026, Ranking Defenses on Conference Championship Weekend
Kayshon Boutte Goes for 60+ Yards, Scores a Touchdown
It has been a breakout season for Kayshon Boutte. He averaged 69.6 receiving yards per game and 16.7 yards per reception during the regular season while setting a career high in touchdowns (six). The former sixth-round pick has also been integral to New England’s passing game in the playoffs, combining for 141 receiving yards on nine targets with at least one play of 30-plus yards in each contest. With Drake Maye having one of the highest deep-throw rates (12.5 percent) in the NFL, you can guarantee he will target Boutte deep in the AFC title game on Sunday.
It is especially true since Boutte will likely draw plenty of coverage from Riley Moss. Denver’s 6-foot cornerback was targeted 118 times in coverage this season, allowing 850 receiving yards with an 11.9 average depth of target when in coverage. Maye is going to test him on Sunday, and Boutte will be able to create some separation downfield. He is either going to draw a defensive pass interference penalty inside the red zone or beat Moss deep for a 30-plus yard touchdown. Maybe the penalty keeps Boutte out of the end zone, but we think he puts up 60-plus yards and a score.
Jarrett Stidham Lays an Egg in AFC Title Game
The Bo Nix injury takes out a lot of the excitement for the AFC title game. Sean Payton has a lot of faith in Jarrett Stidham, who has been with the Broncos since 2003. The veteran quarterback knows Payton’s system well and we have no doubt that one of the NFL’s best offensive minds will find ways to make his signal-caller look better while taking as much pressure off him as possible.
However, this is still an offense being led by Stidham. He last played in 2023 and he’s only attempted 197 passes in the regular season since entering the league in 2019. The last time Stidham saw significant playing time–Weeks 17-18 in 2023–the Broncos offense averaged 15 points and 299.5 total yards per game and ranked 22nd in Success Rate (40.9%). In that two-game span, Stidham had a 43.8% completion rate when blitzed and a 76.9 QB rating when pressured. Pair all of that with a career 4.1% interception rate; we expect Stidham to finish this game with at least 1 interception, 3-plus sacks taken and he’ll average under 6 yards per attempt.
Patriots Win the AFC Championship Game
It would be one thing if the Broncos had an excellent rushing attack that could really shoulder the load for this offense. Unfortunately, Nix’s ability to scramble was a part of their success on the ground. There is now more pressure on R.J. Harvey, who has averaged just 3.4 yards per carry on 102 attempts since Week 10. Denver can use the more effective Jaleel McLaughlin, but there is no explosive element to this ground game. That just leaves too many issues to make up for offensively.
Drake Maye has struggled in the playoffs, committing six fumbles in two games and throwing multiple interceptions. With that said, he has still made some absolutely gorgeous throws in key moments that put points on the board for New England. The Patriots are absolutely catching a break here, with the AFC Championship Game only adding to a schedule that has felt historically soft. However, Maye and Mike Vrabel are just taking down the opponents put in front of them. New England will be the AFC champs come Sunday.
