With eight weeks of the regular season in the books, we have a mature player props market with plentiful data points.
Finding winners will become increasingly difficult as the bookmakers sharpen their lines. As a result, this is the time of year when exercising discipline can save your bankroll.
When studying player props, we typically skew more toward playing under this time of year. However, after beginning with an overall handicap of the Week 9 games, I noticed that quite a few overs piqued my interest.
That can sometimes be a red flag, so we will be a bit cautious in adding more plays. As a result, these are three most intriguing player props heading into Week 9.
–Falcons QB Taylor Heinicke over 10.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Falcons head coach Arthur Smith announced they’re turning to Heinicke after the veteran backup replaced Desmond Ridder last week in the third quarter against the Titans.
Ridder underwent a concussion evaluation at halftime and, despite being cleared, did not check back into the game. He’s been turnover-prone and Heinicke was very productive, albeit against a Titans’ defense clearly playing it safe with a big lead.
Heinicke orchestrated four scoring drives for 20 points and 253 total yards compared to one scoring drive for three points in the first half for Ridder. And while Smith doesn’t view this change as permanent, Heinicke is clearly auditioning for the job.
Opportunities for Heinicke to run the ball against a Minnesota defense that forces opposing quarterbacks to step up in the pocket.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Vikings lead the league with a 52.7 percent blitz rate. That’s almost 10 percent higher than the Giants, who rank second at 43.1.
The Vikings have also allowed the sixth-most rushing yards (170) to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Based on these factors, we have enough to play Heinicke over his rushing prop.
–Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa over 22.5 pass attempts (-130 at FanDuel)
There are plenty of storylines in Germany as two of the AFC’s top teams take part of the NFL’s International Series.
The Dolphins and Chiefs have matching 6-2 records. But Miami has yet to beat a team with a record over .500. In comparison, the Chiefs have three wins over .500 teams.
There’s also the Tyreek Hill angle, as the dynamic wide receiver will line up against his former team after spending five years in Kansas City before he was traded during contract talks with the Chiefs.
Even before playing his first game with the Dolphins, Hill drew some criticism after commenting that Tagovailoa was a more accurate passer than Mahomes.
While some in the media interpreted Hill’s comments as a slight towards Mahomes, he never said Tagovailoa was the better quarterback. Hill praised Mahomes for having the stronger arm between the two.
Nonetheless, we have a revenge angle here with Hill facing the Chiefs.
This game will take place at Deutsche Bank Park, which has a retractable roof. The total remains steady at 50.5, the highest of the week.
Given the subplots with Tagovailoa vs. Mahomes and Hill facing his former team, it wouldn’t surprise me if this game turns into a track meet.
–Tyson Bagent over 18.5 completions (-110 at DraftKings)
With Justin Fields still nursing a right thumb injury, Bagent will make his third straight start. While the rookie has only 80 passes this season, he’s completing 70 percent of his attempts.
It also doesn’t hurt that his average intended air yards (5.6) puts him dead last among quarterbacks with at least 68 pass attempts.
It’s not a stretch to think that the Bears’ passing offense is somewhat risk-averse with Bagent under center.
If the Bears continue with this conservative approach, Bagent should be able to pick up some easy completions against the Saints with this prop going over the number.
–By Michael Nwaneri, Field Level Media