Six teams return from bye weeks and all 32 teams are in action Week 8.
The full card means more options to choose from, and we’re shopping the player props market.
As usual, it helps to select props that correlate with how you expect a game to unfold. Thus, one can begin this process by crafting their overall game handicap before identifying which players to target.
Now that we’ve outlined our strategy, here are our top five player props in Week 8.
–Saints ATH Taysom Hill over 10.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
This play on Hill is worth the risk, even though he’s banged up. Hill is dealing with a chest injury that’s kept him limited in both Saints’ practices this week.
With the addition of Derek Carr at the quarterback position, Hill’s involvement has primarily been as a rusher. Hill has yet to attempt more than one pass in any game this season.
Hill had five games in which he attempted at least two passes.
The Saints will be up against a Colts team that has allowed the second-most points (183) this year. Per TeamRankings, Indianapolis sits tied for 23rd in the league in red zone scoring defensive percentage (61.9%).
Lastly, the 33rd team lists the Colts 28th in rushing yards allowed (165) to opposing quarterbacks, which feeds our educated hunch that Hill could see more than a few designed runs.
–Broncos QB Russell Wilson under 32.5 pass attempts (-130 at PointsBet)
In September, Wilson averaged 34.6 pass attempts through three games and dropped to 27.5 pass attempts over Denver’s next four games.
I can’t help but think that there’s been a fundamental change in the strategy of how Broncos head coach Sean Payton wants to run the offense.
This will be the second meeting in as many weeks between the two teams after facing off in Week 6. Kansas City won 19-8 in a game where Wilson managed only 22 pass attempts.
We’ve grown accustomed to the potency of this Chiefs’ offense led by reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes. In five of his six seasons as a starter, the Chiefs averaged at least 29 points per game.
This season, that number is down to 25.4 per game. And while Mahomes is still playing at an MVP level, the defense has a much more significant role.
Kansas City’s defense ranks sixth overall in expected points added (EPA) and third against the pass using the same metric.
And with the Chiefs’ scoring already down, opposing teams can stay in the game a bit longer without abandoning the running game if playing from behind.
Denver will be the home team for this divisional rematch, and I suspect they’ll try to lean on their running game to keep Mahomes and company on the sidelines as much as possible.
–Colts WR Alec Pierce over 20.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Given that Gardner Minshew will be under center for the Colts, this prop might offer the best value on the board. Although Minshew began the season backing up the injured Anthony Richardson, he provides more of a vertical attack than the Colts’ rookie.
In four games that Minshew either started or played a significant number of snaps, Pierce finished with at least 21 receiving yards. Furthermore, he’s averaging 37 receiving yards over those four games.
The sportsbooks’ projections for Pierce likely correlate to Richardson being on the field. However, the situation is now clearly different, and perhaps it’ll still take some time for them to deviate from their original numbers.
Thus, if you can spot a discrepancy, this is one of those spots where it makes sense to trust your instincts and not overthink things too much.
–Jets RB Dalvin Cook over 0.5 receiving yards (-105 at BetMGM)
Cook’s frustration with his role in the Jets’ offense isn’t breaking news. Cook signed a one-year $7 million deal with the Jets, including $5.8 million guaranteed, and has been used less frequently than the Aaron Rodgers TD jumbotron graphics.
Cook’s use is in decline. He played fewer and fewer snaps each game since the Jets’ season opener against the Bills. In the Jets’ last game, Cook saw action in just 14% of their snaps on offense.
The Jets are coming off a bye in Week 7, and recently, Cook acknowledged that his head could be on the trading block.
“It’s something I can’t control (if traded)…” Cook said. “It might be a good thing, might be a bad thing.”
Cook did say that while he’s not demanding a trade, he’s open to doing what’s best for both sides.
There isn’t a better way to showcase Cook than giving him more opportunities on Sunday against the Giants.
Cook only averages 2.8 yards per carry, but it’s tough to have any rhythm when you’re not getting consistent touches. Nonetheless, I think his receiving prop offers the best value because he can still catch the ball out of the backfield.
Despite his diminished playing time, he’s only had one game this season where he failed to catch a pass. This number for his receiving prop almost suggests that the Jets will keep him on the sidelines ahead of the looming trade deadline.
However, given how Cook has handled things professionally, I don’t see any reason for the Jets to view his actions as malicious. As a result, I’ll keep my fingers crossed and take the over with his receiving yardage prop.
–Steelers QB Kenny Pickett under 32.5 pass attempts (-125 at PointsBet)
Pittsburgh is off to a 4-2 start despite getting arguably below-average play from Pickett at the quarterback position. Per ESPN, Pickett ranks 30th among quarterbacks in Total QBR (35.5).
The Steelers are tricky to get a feel for because they seem to do more with less than some of the other teams around the league.
It’s at the point where I think you can no longer excuse the intangibles that head coach Mike Tomlin brings to the team as a leader and motivator.
Pittsburgh’s defense ranks eighth in Aaron Schatz’s defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) metric. That defense has kept its last two opponents under 17 points.
This total dropped a half-point to 40.5 after opening at 41. Moreover, there’s some rain in the forecast in Pittsburgh, with wind gusts up to 10 mph. If the Steelers can turn this game into a slugfest, I don’t see either quarterback putting up big passing numbers.
And given Pickett’s struggles this season, I think it makes sense to play the under in his prop for pass attempts.
–Michael Nwaneri, Field Level Media