Matt Johnson
Who will win the NBA championship this year? While the 2026 NBA Finals doesn’t tip-off until June and we aren’t quite at the end of the regular season, it feels like we’ve seen enough to gauge which clubs have a realistic shot at winning it all this year.
Let’s dive into our rankings of NBA Finals contenders. If a team isn’t listed, we simply don’t believe they have any viable path to winning a championship this season.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Even with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell each missing significant stretches of time this season, the Oklahoma City Thunder will likely finish the regular season with the best record in the NBA. Through 70 games, Oklahoma City has allowed the second-fewest PPG (107.5), the lowest opponents’ field goal percentage (43.4 percent) and its league-best 11.0 Net Rating is equal to the combined Net Value of the fourth (San Antonio Spurs) and 10th-best teams (Minnesota Timberwolves) in the NBA. SGA is now healthy and performing even better down the stretch than he did last season, Mitchell is back and Williams should be ready for the playoffs. Plus, thanks to Daryl Morey giving away Jared McCain, the Thunder’s rotation is deeper than it was last season.
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2. San Antonio Spurs
The last time the San Antonio Spurs appeared in the NBA Playoffs (2019), Victor Wembanyama was 15 years old and De’Aaron Fox was in his second season with the Sacramento Kings. It’s truly the very limited postseason experience on the Spurs roster that is our drawback with the team. With that said, San Antonio went 4-1 against Oklahoma City in the regular season with a +26 point differential and Wembanyama is more than capable of dominating Chet Holmgren in a series. Plus, it’s been made clear that the likes of Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson and Dylan Harper have as much bad blood for the Thunder as Wembanyama does. If we’re picking someone outside of Oklahoma City to win the NBA Finals, it’s San Antonio.
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3. Boston Celtics
The Boston Celtics entered the weekend with a 6-1 record with Jayson Tatum in the lineup. We were admittedly a bit concerned about the decision to bring him back this early from a torn Achilles, but the perennial All-Star forward has looked really impressive in his return. This is now a lineup that seemingly features two MVP-caliber performers in Tatum and Jaylen Brown, all the while Derrick White might be the best No. 3 player on any team in the NBA. Boston boasts the most playoff experience in the Eastern Conference and we can confidently say it’s by far the best-coached team. It’s just a question of how Tatum fares over the course of the playoffs and whether the sub-.500 record against top-10 teams is a sign that Boston could run into a buzzsaw in the NBA Finals
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4. Denver Nuggets
Ranking the Denver Nuggets fourth among likely NBA Finals contenders is entirely about Nikola Jokic. He currently ranks fourth all-time in career Win Shares per 48 Minutes (.2298) in the NBA Playoffs. If you focus just on the last four years, Jokic boasts an absurd 0.25 WS/48 and he’s averaged 28.7 points, 13.2 rebounds and 8.5 assists per game while shooting 53.5 percent from the field in his last 51 playoff games. He also doesn’t have to carry Denver quite as much when Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon are healthy. Denver’s 10-12 record in its last 22 games raises some alarm bells and Cam Johnson has been a big disappointment, but we’re never going to downplay Jokic’s ability to propel his team to the NBA Finals.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers
Are the Cleveland Cavaliers a better team with James Harden than Darius Garland? Yes, we certainly have more confidence in their chances of making a playoff run this season after the trade. With that said, Harden’s proven reputation of collapsing in win-or-go-home playoff games is a glaring worry with Cleveland. There’s already been plenty of evidence that the Jarrett Allen-Evan Mobley frontcourt pairing doesn’t work out well in the NBA Playoffs, even with Donovan Mitchell erupting that time of year (28.3 PPG) for Cleveland. The Cavaliers have a shot to win the Eastern Conference, but it would probably take a significant injury out west for this team to win the NBA Finals.
6. New York Knicks
It’s now or never for the New York Knicks. Mike Brown was brought in during the offseason with the expectation being that he would make enough of a difference to ensure Madison Square Garden hosts multiple NBA Finals games. From Feb. 1 to March 20, New York posted a respectable 16-7 record with a +8.7 point differential and that stretch includes wins over the Nuggets, Spurs and Rockets. There’s a strong case to be made for putting the Detroit Pistons in this spot, but we are giving the Knicks a slight edge because of their playoff experience.
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