Matt Johnson
We’re now through 20 points races in the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series regular season, with Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick becoming the first drivers to clinch spots in The Chase. THat leaves 14 spots left up for grabs, with six points remaining before the 10-race chase begins. Now, thanks to some great work by Reddit user scepthan, a The Chase points to clinch tracker has been created to monitor how closer your favorite drivers are to making it in.
Ahead of Sunday night’s race at North Wilkesboro Speedway, let’s take a look at the latest NASCAR The Chase Clinch Scenarios entering the Window World 450. Of note, only Ryan Blaney can clinch this weekend, but there are plenty of other top drivers on the brink of clinch scenarios the following week.
Ryan Blaney: 36 Points Needed
It’s not a guarantee that Ryan Blaney clinches his spot in The Chase this weekend at North Wilkesboro, but it’s extremely likely. After all, he needs just 36 points and he’s averaged 39.4 points over the last nine races with at least 36 in five of those races. If he doesn’t get it this weekend, it’s a practical guarantee to happen at the Brickyard 400.
Ty Gibbs: 97 Points Needed
It’s safe to say that no one, outside of Joe Gibbs Racing, would’ve predicted coming into the season that Ty Gibbs would be one of the first drivers to clinch a spot in The Chase. Barring a win in the next two weeks at either North Wilkesboro or Indianapolis, it’s not happening in July. However, given he needs just 32.3 points per race to make it in the next three races, locking up that spot at Iowa Speedway (Aug. 9) or Richmond (Aug. 15) is doable.
Chase Elliott: 153 Points Needed
It’s at this point in The Chase watch where we see just how down to the wire it will come for some drivers. Will Chase Elliott make The Chase this season? Yes. However, given that he needs 153 points as of now to clinch, it’s going to take him until August to do so. Fortunately for the No. 9 team, Elliott’s consistency (20–plus points in seven consecutive races) makes it a certainty.
Kyle Larson: 170 Points Needed
Kyle Larson should be much closer to this in terms of his clinching scenario. However, already stuck in a year-long winless drought, he’s been a bit of his own worst enemy as of late. Larson has totaled just 23 points in his last two races and he had a stretch in the spring from Talladega through Watkins Glen where he amassed just 18 total points. The turnaround is coming for the No. 5 team, but Larson will have made it a slightly closer call than it needed to be.
Chris Buescher: 198 Points Needed
As of now, it appears Chris Buescher will be the only RFK Racing driver making The Chase this season. Ryan Preece (-26 points below cutline) and Brad Keselowski (-43) are still in the hunt, but the competition for those final spots makes it iffy. Buescher, who sits 125 points above the cutline, should earn his spot in the 10-race chase sometime in August.
Carson Hocevar: 204 Points Needed
The breakout season many thought was coming from Carson Hocevar in 2026 happened. It’s only a matter of time until he challenges to be the most popular driver in NASCAR, especially with the on-track results he’s started delivering. Hocevar is in a pretty comfortable spot ahead of this weekend’s trip to North Wilkesboro, sitting 125 points in the green. We suspect he’ll earn that spot in The Chase in New Hampshire.
Christopher Bell: 217 Points Needed
Christopher Bell has finished second in four races since Charlotte, coming oh-so-close to those 15 additional bonus points awarded to the winning driver. In that same span, he’s also recorded 11 or fewer points twice. Considering the fractured wrist he suffered a month ago, things could’ve been so much worse. Bell’s spot in The Chase should be locked up in late August.
Chase Briscoe: 226 Points Needed
The 2026 season got off to a rough start for Chase Briscoe. While he finished second in the spring race at EchoPark, that was sandwiched between last-place finishes in the Daytona 500 and at COTA and Phoenix for 4 total points. He’s since rebounded, averaging 30.9 points in the last 16 points races and that’s even including Talladega (8 points) and the Quaker State 400 (4 points). Briscoe might be a later lock into The Chase than he wanted, but that’s a huge improvement over where things stood for him when he left Phoenix in March.
