Matt Johnson
The Cup Series is headed to Texas Motor Speedway this weekend for the 11th points race of the season. We’re continuing our weekly NASCAR predictions once again, coming off our first correct pick for the winning driver of 2026.
Let’s dive into our Würth 400 predictions. We’ll start with the pole winner and work our way through the stages before predicting who hits victory lane.
Kyle Larson Earns the Pole at Texas
Kyle Larson and the No. 5 team have been pretty good in qualifying this season, coming to Texas with the second-highest average starting position (7.7) in the Cup Series. However, they’ve failed to win a single pole this year for a points race. What better time to snap that cold streak than at the track where Larson has won the pole three times since 2021? There’ll be a Waxing Crescent Moon this week, as we learned on DBC, so Larson should be able to take advantage in qualifying.
Read More: NASCAR Power Rankings Before Texas
Austin Cindric Wins Stage 1
In the last two trips to Texas Motor Speedway, Austin Cindric and the No. 2 team have had speed. He qualified third in the Würth 400 last year and won Stage 1, and the previous year he posted the second-best average lap time (29.2 seconds). We’re projecting Cindric to put up one of the five-best lap times on Saturday and then carry that over into a Stage 1 win.
Related: NASCAR Weekend Schedule at Texas Motor Speedway
Christopher Bell Takes Stage 2
Christopher Bell and the No. 20 team need a strong points day this weekend in the Wurth 400. Bell’s finished 17th or worse in the last three races and he hasn’t cleared 30 points in his last five trips to the track. Considering it’s a widely-held belief that true contenders for the Cup Series championship need to be top-five in points at the end of the regular season, Bell (ninth place) has some real ground that needs to be made up. We’re predicting that comes on Sunday, with the No. 20 winning Stage 2 (10 points) and finishing top-five in points on the day.
Erik Jones Finishes Top 10, Sets Season-High in Points
Erik Jones had a legitimate shot at a top-five finish before getting pushed out and placing 23rd at Talladega. It marked his third consecutive 23rd-place finish. The turnaround is coming this weekend in the Würth 400. Jones has three top-10 finishes at Texas since May 2021 and he thrived at this track years ago with Joe Gibbs Racing. After totaling 42 points combined in the last three races, Jones is going to put up 38-plus on Sunday.
Chase Briscoe Wins the Würth 400
Chase Briscoe finished 27th in the Würth 400 last year in his first season with Joe Gibbs Racing because of a suspension issue. Prior to that, he had three top-five finishes here with SHR and the No. 19 team has its own history of excellence at Texas. There have been a lot of downs for Briscoe and JGR in 2026, but the speed in the No. 19 has always been there. It’ll show up once again on Sunday, with Briscoe racing his way to a win.
