Matt Johnson
Who will win the NASCAR race this weekend? The NASCAR Cup Series is headed to Phoenix for the Straight Talk Wireless 500 on Sunday. Christopher Bell and Ryan Blaney won at this track last season, but it also holds some recent memories for Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin.
As we do with every race, we’re making predictions for what will happen in the NASCAR Cup Series on Sunday, from stage winners and a top finisher to picking the driver who will reach victory lane.
Let’s dive into our NASCAR predictions this week for the Cup Series race at Phoenix Raceway.
Denny Hamlin Wins Stage 1
This will be Denny Hamlin‘s first race at Phoenix since his heartbreaking loss in the Cup Series championship. He’s also coming off a three-race stretch where he’s racked up just one stage point, which came at Circuit of the Americas of all places. This weekend’s trip presents the No. 11 team with a great opportunity to rack up points. Hamlin has finished third or better four times in the last eight stages at Phoenix, including a Stage 2 win last November. Given the sizable points gap he’s facing, we think Hamlin goes for the Stage 1 victory on Sunday. It’ll be the start of a great day for the 11 team.
Related: NASCAR Odds Phoenix, 4 Picks for Straight Talk Wireless 500
Ryan Blaney Wins Stage 2
While Ryan Blaney doesn’t have a top-five finish this season, he’s tied with Bubba Wallace for the most stage points (34) in the Cup Series. The driver of the No. 12 car will be leading NASCAR in stage points after leaving Phoenix. Blaney has already won four stages at this track since 2021, not including his second-place finishes in both stages last November. He’s averaging a 4.7 average finishing position in stages over the last seven races here, and he’ll continue that excellence with a Stage 2 win in the Straight Talk Wireless 500.
Related: NASCAR Weekend Schedule Phoenix, TV Info and Full Schedule
Chris Buescher, Josh Berry Finish Top-10 in Points at Phoenix
Chris Buescher and Josh Berry will both show up to Phoenix Raceway hoping to put a rough weekend behind them. The No. 17 car was having a very strong day at COTA before Kyle Busch’s issues with teammate Jesse Love sent the No. 33 into Buescher at the exit of the final corner, wiping out a potential top-15 finish. As for Berry, he’s finished outside the top 25 in consecutive races. Both drivers have a great track record here, with Buescher holding an 8.0 average finishing position and Berry recording three top 10s in the last five races. We anticipate both drivers will finish top-five in a stage, grab points in another stage, and deliver a finish that allows them to come out of this in the top 10 for points accrued in this race.
Related: NASCAR Points Leaders Before Phoenix
Bubba Wallace, Tyler Reddick Finish Outside Top 10
The early-season dominance by 23XI Racing will come to an end in Phoenix. Not only will Tyler Reddick‘s winning streak be snapped at three, but he won’t even finish inside the top 10 on Sunday, nor will he finish in the top 10 for points accrued. Meanwhile, Bubba Wallace will fare very well in Stage 1 and then get caught up in a wreck in Stage 2 that takes him out of contention, and he’ll finish outside the top 25. Thankfully for 23XI, their hot start to the season will effectively make this race a mulligan for NASCAR’s top points scorers.
Related: NASCAR Entry List Phoenix, Cup Series Field for Straight Talk Wireless 500
Kyle Larson Wins the Straight Talk Wireless 500
We suspect a dominant race from Kyle Larson and Hendrick Motorsports is right around the corner. The No. 5 car could deliver it this weekend at the track where he won the Cup Series crown a few months ago. Larson has the fourth-most laps led (214) at Phoenix since 2022, but he hasn’t won a race here in the spring during his Cup career. That’ll end on Sunday, when he runs away with the Straight Talk Wireless 500 for his first trip to victory lane in 2026.
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