The 2026 NASCAR season is less than a month away, and the Daytona 500 is closing in fast with the offseason almost over. While last year demonstrated that the top teams and drivers in the Cup Series are more dominant than in previous years with the Next Gen car, there’s still a real chance we see some first-time winners in 2026.
Before the green flag is waved, we’re making four NASCAR predictions for drivers who could get their first Cup Series wins this season.
Connor Zilisch
As a teenager, Connor Zilisch achieved historic success in the Xfinity Series this past season, and he now gets to be a full-time driver in the No. 88 car for Trackhouse Racing. We’re not at all suggesting that Zilisch, who won’t turn 20 years old until late July, is going to be a playoff challenger this season—at least not based on the new playoff format that doesn’t seem to have win-and-in. However, the 19-year-old is already one of the best Cup Series drivers on road courses, and Trackhouse has already proven with Shane van Gisbergen that it’s willing to focus a lot of its efforts on those tracks. We’re predicting that Zilisch delivers his first Cup Series win as a rookie, with it coming at either Naval Base Coronado (June 21) or Sonoma Raceway (June 28).
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Ty Gibbs
Of all the full-time Cup Series drivers who are winless, Ty Gibbs has by far the fewest excuses. Once viewed as one of the top up-and-comers in racing, he has failed to reach victory lane in three seasons driving the No. 54 car. The results have largely been pinned on those around him at Joe Gibbs Racing, as most recently demonstrated by Chris Gabehart leaving the organization. With that said, JGR is still pouring massive resources into Gibbs winning, and he has recorded 13 top-5 finishes with 24 top-10s in the last two years. He will be aided by some chaos in front of him, but we’ll say Gibbs gets his first-ever Cup Series win, and we’ve got our eye on Bristol Motor Speedway on April 12.
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Carson Hocevar
Carson Hocevar might not be one of the more popular drivers among his peers, but he showed flashes of talent you typically only see from the guys who win multiple races per season. He finished second in both the Ambetter Health 400 and the Quaker State 400. He drives with an aggressiveness that’s necessary to get to the front, but late in the year, he seemed to show better decision-making to go with it. The No. 77 car clearly has the speed, too. Hocevar will win his first Cup Series race in 2026, and he might even challenge for a second.
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Ryan Preece
John Hunter Nemechek was the other driver who drew consideration here, but we’re leaning toward Ryan Preece. He is coming off a career-best season with massive improvements in average finishing position (20.89 to 15.69) and top-5s (three), and he nearly tripled his top-10s (14) from the previous year. Preece demonstrated the ability to work his way out of a bad position (such as the 23rd-place start at the Brickyard 400) to snag a top-5 finish, and he has made real strides on intermediate tracks. Driving for RFK Racing means having to take a few more risks, but more experience and overall improvements as a driver, paired with one big gamble, could pay off for Preece with his first-ever Cup Series victory in 2026.
