Matt Johnson
The NASCAR Cup Series is back this weekend with teams headed to the iconic Bristol Motor Speedway. Two weeks to prepare for the Food City 500 provided drivers with time to both relax and get in extra sim time, so we expect some great racing this weekend.
Let’s dive into our NASCAR predictions at Bristol for the Food City 500.
Denny Hamlin Wins the Pole at Bristol
Denny Hamlin and the No. 11 team have qualified no worse than eighth at Bristol Motor Speedway in eight races since 2020. However, he hasn’t won the pole here since 2019 and he’s done it just twice since 2015. Joe Gibbs Racing had the No. 11 designed perfectly two weeks ago at Martinsville, demonstrated by the car winning the pole, posting the fastest lap, taking both stages, and dominating a majority of the race. We think the setup at Bristol will be equally as effective, with Hamlin earning the pole position at Bristol for Sunday’s race.
Related: NASCAR Cup Series All-Time Wins List, including Denny Hamlin
Kyle Larson Wins Stage 1
Last April at Bristol Motor Speedway, Kyle Larson wiped the field with two stage wins, the fastest lap, and a victory with 411 laps led. Maybe we won’t see that same level of ownage by the No. 5 car this weekend in the Food City 500, but Larson will record his first stage win of the season. This is also kind of something he and Hendrick Motorsports need, given he’s tied for ninth in points right now. Larson will take Stage 1 early on Sunday afternoon; it’ll be just the start of an outstanding points day for him.
Christopher Bell Wins Stage 2
We think there’ll be a great back-and-forth between a few of the best NASCAR drivers throughout the Food City 500. Larson gets a Stage 1 win and, thanks to some issues on pit road by the No. 11 team, Christopher Bell takes advantage by beating Hamlin and Larson for the Stage 2 win. He’ll finish top-five in both stages, securing himself 16-plus stage points, and he’ll finish strong to come out of the weekend top-three in points accrued during Sunday’s race.
Ty Gibbs Stays Hot
Ty Gibbs certainly isn’t one of the most popular NASCAR drivers right now, but you can’t deny the success he’s had lately. He entered the off-week with five consecutive top-six finishes, averaging 41 points per race during that five-race span. He’s not making the mistakes of the past, where he’d waste the great equipment, team, and setup he’s working with. Now, Gibbs heads to a track at Bristol Motor Speedway where he boasts an 8.4 average finishing position in the last five races, including a third-place finish in the spring race last year. We think Gibbs can make it six consecutive top-five finishes.
Food City 500 Winner: Denny Hamlin
While Denny Hamlin hasn’t been quite as great as Tyler Reddick this season, his top driver at 23XI Racing struggles on these short tracks. Hamlin easily had the best car at Martinsville and would’ve maxed out on points and a win if not for a loose tire after his final pit stop that impacted the car’s ability to catch up to Chase Elliott. We predicted earlier that a minor pit-stop issue will prevent Hamlin from taking Stage 2, but the team will be flawless after that. In a battle of Hamlin, Larson, and Bell, the two teammates help one another out and then Hamlin edges out Bell for the Food City 500 win.
