Matt Johnson
When NASCAR announced the return of The Chase for the 2026 season, many drivers and fans were elated to see the old win-and-in playoff format ditched for good. Now seven races into the season, a few drivers might already be missing the old ways of playoff-clinching scenarios.
We’re just over a quarter of the way through the regular season in the Cup Series following Sunday’s Cook Out 400. With the Cup Series taking a week off, it’s worth taking a look at some marquee drivers who are on the NASCAR Chase Bubble right now.
Josh Berry: 55 Points Back
Josh Berry got Wood Brothers Racing into the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs last season with his victory on March 16 at the Pennzoil 400. More than a year later, the No. 21 team faces much longer odds of sneaking into the 16-driver, 10-race battle. The good news for Berry is that he’s coming off a season-best performance at Martinsville, placing 10th and recording 36 points. He’s earned 56 points in the last two races and has moved up double-digit spots on the points leaderboard. However, the fact that he totaled just 23 points over a four-race span from Atlanta to Las Vegas erases his margin for error moving forward. With how some of his peers have already performed this season racing for better teams and with better equipment, making the playoffs seems highly unlikely for Berry.
Related: NASCAR Cup Series Stage Winners 2026, Stats Tracker
Kyle Busch: 48 Points Back
Based on how the No. 8 car has performed through seven races, and really the entire Richard Childress Racing team as a whole, even a win-and-in format wouldn’t get Kyle Busch into The Chase. This is the first time in his Cup Series career that Busch has gone the first seven races without a top-10 finish, and his frustration with the team is evident in interviews. We haven’t seen any evidence from RCR or the No. 8 car to believe Busch won’t go three consecutive seasons without a Cup win.
Related: Kyle Busch Winless Streak, What’s Happened Since Last Win
Chase Briscoe: 36 Points Back
In his first season driving the No. 19 car with Joe Gibbs Racing, Chase Briscoe earned a spot in the Championship 4 and won three races with 15 top-five finishes. While he was certainly viewed as a championship hopeful coming into the year, it feels safe to rule Briscoe out for that before the calendar flips to April. It’s not necessarily his fault. Finishes at Daytona (36th), COTA (37th), and Phoenix (37th) were largely caused by wrecks around him or issues with the car. The why doesn’t matter in The Chase, not when you accrue 4 total points in those three races. Now coming off consecutive finishes outside the top-10, we feel confident saying Briscoe won’t finish the regular season top-8 in points, and that means he has no real hope at a title.
Related: NASCAR Standings Today, Points Leaders after Martinsville
Ross Chastain: 31 Points Back
With better equipment, Ross Chastain might be a championship contender. What he’s working with this season in the No. 1 car for Trackhouse Racing might keep him out of The Chase entirely. This generally seems to be a Trackhouse issue, as evidenced by Connor Zilisch performing like Cody Ware on ovals this season. In the past, Chastain would make up for the team’s shortcomings by pulling out a win. That’s not an option, and while we’d still predict him to be one of the 16 drivers in The Chase, it’s no longer the certainty many expected a few months ago.
Austin Cindric: 18 Points Back
Austin Cindric‘s arrow is pointing upward after these last two weeks. The fact that he’s still 18 points back of Daniel Suarez for the 16th and final spot after racking up 78 points in the last two races says a lot about the big hole he dug himself into through the first four races of the season. With the points gap narrowed, Cindric has likely given himself a bit of a margin for error, while still having a shot to grab one of the final two spots in The Chase.
Related: NASCAR Power Rankings 2026
