Isaac Ciravolo
As we push deeper into June, one of the most surprising storylines in baseball isn’t happening in Los Angeles or New York. It’s happening in the nation’s capital with the Washington Nationals.
The Washington Nationals are currently four games above .500 and have the third National League Wild Card spot. The question isn’t whether the Nationals have overachieved, they clearly have. The question is whether they have the metrics and enough pieces to secure a playoff berth this fall. Taking a look under the hood of the Nationals shows a strong case for them to play October baseball.
An Under-the-Radar Elite Offense
The Nationals aren’t just riding a wave of good luck at the plate. They have quietly built one of the most productive lineups in the sport.
Washington currently ranks third in MLB in wRC+ and is powered by outstanding seasons from James Wood and CJ Abrams. Wood ranks in the 100th percentile for xwOBA, xSLG, Avg Exit Velo and Barrel %, making him one of the most feared hitters in the National League and even all of the majors. His breakout season has not been too shocking, however, as now his production has caught up to his peripherals. While not as obvious as Wood’s dominant offensive breakout, CJ Abrams has quietly hit to a 97th percentile Batting Run Value to go along with his 80th percentile sprint speed.
Washington pairs that top-tier hitting with an aggressive baserunning mantra that has led them to second overall in steals and tied for second in BsR. The combination of raw hitting from Wood and Abrams along with strong team baserunning has brought them to the top of the league in runs scored.
The Missing Piece
While the offense and baserunning are operating at a championship level, the pitching staff remains the blatant Achilles’ Heel. The starting rotation has struggled to consistently limit damage and work deep into games.
To protect their Wild Card spot, the front office must target pitching help before the trade deadline passes. They don’t need to empty the farm system for a blockbuster ace like Tarik Skubal, but bringing in reliable arms to eat innings and hold their opponents to less runs than their great offense can score is completely non-negotiable.
The Fixes
To survive a grueling summer run, the Nationals need a balance of veteran stability and dynamic upside. They can achieve this by pairing a sneaky trade with an internal promotion.
- Trade for Cal Quantrill: The Texas Rangers have used him exclusively as a reliever this season, and while his past few years have not been promising, he can fulfill exactly what the Nationals need. The Nationals need a guy that can go into the game, throw five or more innings and hold the other team to four or less. Quantrill has shown that he can do this and could even return to his better, pre-2023 form and limit hard hits. Washington can get him for an extreme bargain and move him back to a starting role to protect their bullpen.
- Promote Luis Perales: The Nationals ninth ranked prospect, 23-year-old righty Luis Perales, has returned from Tommy John surgery and has returned to throwing 100 mph with ride on his fastball. While Washington should be careful with how hard they push him, he could relieve massive amounts of stress from their pitching staff and even step up to be a borderline ace.
The Verdict
The NL WIld Card picture is going to be a dogfight until September, but the Nationals possess a unique, sustainable identity. When you combine a top-three offense with elite baserunning, you have a team that creates runs with ease. If the front office can execute a low-cost move for Cal Quantrill and pair him with Luis Perales, playoff baseball could absolutely return to D.C.
