Isaac Ciravolo
As the baseball calendar flips deep into June, the picture for the 2026 American and National League Rookie of the Year (ROTY) awards is beginning to form. Clear frontrunners have emerged in both leagues through the first few months of the season, but the race remains wide open.
Elite international talent, highly touted draft picks, and surging prospects are all possibilities to take the award. Here is a breakdown of where each player stands in the race two months into the season.
American League
The American League race features a dominant leader showing no signs of regression, but a couple of elite bats are keeping the pressure on.
The Top Three Contenders
- Kevin McGonigle, SS, Detroit Tigers: McGonigle has established himself as the man to beat in the AL ROTY race. Posting a 2.7 fWAR, McGonigle leads all rookies across the majors. He also has a very mature skill set for a rookie with a 99th percentile Chase%, 92nd percentile BB% and a 95th percentile Whiff%. Barring any injury, McGonigle is the clear favorite for the AL Rookie of the Year award and is proving himself to be a feared player for his full career.
- Munetaka Murakami, 1B, Chicago White Sox: While a recent hamstring strain has sidelined him, Murakami proved that international talent can translate seamlessly to the Major Leagues. In ten less games than second place, Murakami leads rookies in home runs by seven and is in second in RBIs and runs by one. If not for his injury, the battle between Murakami and McGonigle would have been one of the best ROTY races in history.
- Travis Bazzana, 2B, Cleveland Guardians: Despite slowing down in his last 15 games, since his debut on April 28 the 2024 first overall pick has cemented himself within the Guardians lineup and the AL ROTY race. Bazzana posted an above average xwOBA before his recent skid and is currently in sixth place for AL rookie fWAR despite playing nearly 20 less games than his competition. While being a clear second place, Bazzana has the raw skills to make a late break for the crown
The Dark Horse
- Samuel Basallo, C, Baltimore Orioles: Having the second best power of the AL rookies, only behind Murakami, Basallo could very easily cement himself into the race with a surge in production. While only having nine homeruns, he is second in xSLG, third in ISO, and second in EV90 among AL rookies. Although he currently doesn’t have the production to get first place votes, his underlying numbers indicate that he is due for positive regression.
National League
Unlike the AL, the National League race does not have a runaway leader. A tight battle at the top makes this race one of the most exciting storylines to watch heading into July.
The Top 3 Contenders
- JJ Wetherholt, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals: Even if he is not as clear of a leader as McGonigle, Wetherholt holds the title for being the most impactful for his team. Wetherholt has provided elite infield defense, tied for first in OAA with Pete Crow-Armstrong for the NL. To go along with this elite defense is an elite 95th percentile Baserunning Run Value and an above average 64th percentile Batting Run Value.
- Sal Stewart, 1B, Cincinnati Reds: Stewart and Wetherholt are neck-and-neck in the race while having nearly opposing skill sets. Stewart’s batting is his main draw, boasting an 81st percentile xwOBA and a 90th percentile Barrel%. After posting elite production early in the season, Stewart’s batting has regressed down from his peak. Still, Stewart has a good chance of beating out Wetherholt for the ROTY crown.
- Nolan McLean, RHP, New York Mets: In a race dominated by position players, McLean stands alone as the premier rookie arm in the National League. After two poor games in May, putting up a combined 13 earned runs over nine innings, McLean has bounced back to his normal, great production. His elite fastball plays perfectly with his unique movement profile, giving him an 82nd percentile K% and making it difficult for batters to do damage against him.
Dark Horse
- Carson Benge, OF, New York Mets: Teammate of McLean, Benge has been rocketing up the rookie ladder, punctuated by a 5-hit performance on June 7 that featured his first triple. While starting off slow, Benge’s rolling xwOBA has been trending upward all season long, now up to the 70th percentile. Benge’s draw is his speed (85th percentile sprint speed) and his ability to make solid contact consistently with a 95th percentile LA Sweet-Spot% and 87th percentile xBA.
The Two Races
While in the American League there is a clear favorite, the National League is wide open making it the most interesting race to watch throughout the rest of the season. This year’s rookie class has shown their elite pedigree and talent as the league starts to grow past the COVID-caused pause in training and consequential decrease in production.
