Lincoln Zdunich
The Houston Astros have had a rough go of things lately. After surging into first place to start the year, they’re now in dead last in the American League West with a 10-18 record. Despite a ridiculously good offense, their pitching has lost them games again and again.
As a matter of fact, their offense has been one of the best (if not the best) in MLB. The club is sixth in home runs (35), fifth in batting average (.259), fourth in RBIs (136), slugging percentage (.436) and OPS (.782), and third in on-base percentage (.346). It’s been an historic letdown for Astros’ fans that an offense this good has barely scratched 10 wins across the board.
But the crown jewel of that Houston offense — the one hope that fans have been able to cling to — has been the performance of Yordan Alvarez. And, oh my gosh, has he been good.
The Picture Painted by Metrics
Alvarez has gotten off to a crazy start to 2026. The 28-year-old slugger has been on a tear, leading MLB in home runs with 11 through 28 games. As a matter of fact, Alvarez leads MLB in every significant hitting statistic (expect for second place in slugging percentage) with a .353/.464/.755 slash line and an earth-shattering 1.219 OPS.
The craziest part? The expected metrics are even better. His xwOBA (.556), xBA (.381) and xSLG (.871) are all in the 100th percentile of MLB hitters. That means that Alvarez is hitting worse than he should be, and he’s still the best offensive player in the league. No one can do what he’s doing right now.
Batting run value is a Statcast metric that assigns a run impact to every pitch, hit or plate appearance based on its outcome. A positive number indicates above average production whereas a negative number would be below-average. It’s a summative total of the entire season.
For reference, in 2022 when New York Yankee Aaron Judge broke the American League record for home runs with 62, he put up a whopping +90 BRV. Alvarez is on pace for a whopping +118 BRV.
The Ever-Present Question of Sustainability
Like most things in life, baseball is a game that asks more than just about anything else whether or not something is sustainable. In most cases, the answer is no. And the same is largely true here. Alvarez probably won’t keep up these ridiculous numbers.
Probably.
That being said, if he did accomplish what he’s on pace to do: 224 hits, 64 home runs and 150 RBIs. Not to mention Alvarez is on pace for 139 walks (both intentional and not). Those are historic numbers. Aside from the fact that Alvarez would hold the record for home runs in the American League, no player across all of MLB history has ever had a stat line like that.
You’ll notice I didn’t answer the sustainability question. That’s mostly out of not wanting to let the offensive powerhouse dream that is Alvarez go. It would be incredible to see a player go off like this, especially for how young he is. It’s easy to forget that the slugger is only 28.
Whether or not he ends the season with Houston is another question entirely. He’s already been the subject of trade rumors with the San Diego Padres (a club searching for a high-impact bat) and, though the Astros would be crazy to trade him, the club isn’t looking so hot. Starting off the year in dead last with a 10-18 record in the AL West.
Who knows what Alvarez’s future holds? It’s impossible to predict the future — especially in baseball — but the Houston slugger sure looks formidable to start the 2026 season off. Regardless of how it ends, Alvarez will be fun to watch.
