The Los Angeles Dodgers have won at least 100 games in each of the past four seasons, and you could likely make it six if not for the Covid-shortened 2020 campaign in which they held a .717 winning percentage and went on to win the World Series. The team is stacked, and as you may have heard, this winter they’ve been busy.
Some say they’ve been busy ruining baseball because they added too many top-tier players, but every fan base would prefer an owner that spends money (New York Mets, New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves, Dodgers) than one that doesn’t (Oakland A’s).
Maybe Dodgers ownership was tired of hearing about how their one title is a Mickey Mouse championship, so they went and took a little drive and bought Disneyland.
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The beauty of baseball is that it doesn’t matter if you have the best player, or sometimes even the best collection of players. It’s all about what happens before the other team can record 27 outs. The Dodgers were already a powerhouse and were going to continue lapping people in the regular season. They could win 115 games and nobody would be surprised. But do they have the right collection of players to make a deeper run into October?
Los Angeles Dodgers additions and subtractions
Of all the division winners around baseball, the Los Angeles Dodgers had the best offseason in terms of projected WAR added, with 7.1. The Minnesota Twins, Baltimore Orioles, and Milwaukee Brewers each got worse, while the Braves and Houston Astros each got nominally better. Los Angeles went fishing and reeled in two of the best free agents this winter in Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. They also added Tyler Glasnow in a trade with the Rays, and signed lefty James Paxton and outfielder Teoscar Hernández. Those five players combine for a projected WAR total of 13.6, led by Ohtani at 4.3 and Yamamoto at 3.4.
The biggest loss from last year’s team is DH J.D. Martínez, who put up 2.2 wins, but he’s being replaced by the best player in baseball. The only other really big losses in terms of production are Caleb Ferguson, who was traded to the Yankees after a 1.3-win campaign, and Julio Urías, who reached free agency.
While they weren’t big producers for the club last season, the Dodgers traded away starter Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny Deluca to land Glasnow. Both figure to be solid contributors for the Tampa Bay Rays in the coming years.
Los Angeles Dodgers 2024 season outlook
While the Los Angeles Dodgers feel like the best team in baseball, it’s actually the Braves that are projected to have the best record at the end of the year according to both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. FG has the boys in blue at 93-69, while BP has them slightly behind the Braves at 100.5 wins (Atlanta is at 100.7).
If both teams are operating at full capacity entering the postseason, then the Dodgers may have the better team on paper. Yet, there are still some question marks on this roster that we’ll get answers to as the season goes along.
First up, the Dodgers announced last week that Mookie Betts is going to be the team’s starting shortstop, sliding a returning Gavin Lux over to second base. Betts is arguably the most athletic player in baseball, so there isn’t much doubt that he can play any position on the field, though he did grade out slightly below average at the position in limited time there last season. The bigger question here is what the team is expecting from Lux moving forward.
The team is also dealing with a number of injuries on the mound, including Walker Buehler, who will be making his debut a little later in the season, and Clayton Kershaw, who will be back around July. The team is also hoping to get Dustin May back at some point this season, while 24-year-old Emmett Sheehan has been dealing with some shoulder discomfort and will begin the year on the IL. Tony Gonsolin is expected to miss the entire 2024 campaign after having Tommy John surgery late last year. That’s an entire rotation’s worth of pretty good pitchers that are not currently available.
How healthy the Dodgers are as the season winds down could play a big role in what they do in the postseason. Last year they just didn’t have many healthy arms for that run, which led to Lance Lynn, who held a 5.73 ERA in the regular season while giving up 44 home runs, getting the start in Game 3 of the NLDS, down 2-0 in the series. He gave up four solo home runs in one inning and the Dodgers ended up going home.
Los Angeles Dodgers player to watch in 2024
On a team with so many proven veterans, one player that is still trying to cement their status in the big leagues is right-hander Bobby Miller. Even without the number of injuries the Dodgers have in the rotation he was likely to be part of the mix to begin the season, but with those injuries he could end up slotted right behind Glasnow and Yamamoto in the starting five.
The 24-year-old made his MLB debut last season, making 22 starts while holding a 3.76 ERA (3.51 FIP) across 1241/3 innings. In that time, he limited his walks extremely well, holding just a 6.3% clip on the year. His chase, strikeout, and whiff rates were all roughly league average, but Miller possesses a fastball that sits 99 and a curveball that was his most effective put away pitch that also held a 36% whiff rate. He utilizes five pitches and throws them all consistently, keeping hitters off their game.
He struggled a bit in his first postseason start, giving up three earned in just 1 2/3 innings in Game 2 of the NLDS against the Diamondbacks, but in a December interview he said that those struggles made him hungrier and that he’s going to keep that start in mind in 2024.
Miller figures to be the youngest member of the Dodgers 2024 rotation, and yet with the skill set that he offers, he could be the difference between Los Angeles being really good and inevitable this season.
Jason Burke covers MLB for Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter.