It’s once again Elimination Sunday in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs as the field will be trimmed from 12 to 8 by the end of the Bank of America 400 at the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL.
There are storylines, aplenty.
Tyler Reddick will start the race two points below the cutline but will lead the field to green after scoring the pole on Saturday afternoon.
“Yeah, this is what we needed to do,” Reddick said. “We had hoped and put a lot of effort into this, as all the playoff teams do for this race. For the most part, this is as good of an outcome as possible for the No. 45 team today.”
It certainly gives him options.
With stage break cautions returning for this race, you’re going to see an immediate deviation in strategy with drivers who need points staying out in the final laps of a segment while those who must win or have no points pressure pitting before the stage so they can (hypothetically) earn track position by the end of the race.
For example, Reddick could choose to maximize his stage points, a maximum of 20 up for grabs, just in case something happens at the end of the race. Those points could be money in the bank for everyone who earns them.
“Yeah, this is a scenario that could play out,” Reddick said. “But I’m going to leave that up to Billy and the team to figure it out. We’ve seen it before, with last year’s race. It was going to end a lot different and the playoffs would’ve been different on the points before that last caution came out.
“I’m going to stay in my lane and see where I can improve as a driver and leave that decision up to the team.”
Updated playoff grid
William Byron Advanced
Ryan Blaney Advanced
Denny Hamlin +50
Christopher Bell +22
Chris Buescher +19
Martin Truex Jr. +17
Kyle Larson +15
Brad Keselowski +2
—
Tyler Reddick -2
Bubba Wallace -9
Ross Chastain -10
Kyle Busch -26
Bubba’s best road car
Bubba Wallace is going to start the race in fourth, an impressive qualifying effort considering how Wallace has long resented road course racing, a testament to the work that he has put towards them this season. He was also second fastest in practice behind Reddick, his 23XI Racing teammate.
Wallace faces an interesting dynamic because at nine points out at the start of the race, he could choose to race for stage points but risks finishing outside of the top-15 given how hard it is to pass. But if he could score around 10 points, an average finish of fifth across both stages, he would then start the final stage above the cutline and in control of his own destiny.
“This is the best road course car I’ve ever had,” Wallace said. “Take that for what it’s worth. We just have to go out and execute and make no more mistakes. We qualified 13th or 14th last year, was running inside of the top 10 very early and missed the frontstretch chicane.
“I battled back to seventh or eighth. I know we can do it. It’s just cleaning up everything in between. We don’t want to work as hard, but if we have to, we are ready to roll up our sleeves and go.”
If Wallace is going to continue making progress on a road course race, and advance in the playoff in the process, he says not overthinking is going to be key.
“For me, in road course racing, just do it,” Wallace said. “Don’t think about it, just do it.”
Rowdy must win
Meanwhile, Kyle Busch isn’t in a position to count stage points because they don’t matter at 26 markers below the cutline due to crashes at Texas Motor Speedway and Talladega Superspeedway.
“I think as much as the ROVAL is a wild card, it probably fits the best for us,” Busch said. “It’s better than going to a Martinsville or something where we know that might be ugly. But the road course stuff has been really good, and we’ve tweaked on it and tuned on it a little bit. They had a really good package and baseline to start with, so hopefully it just works well for us.”
It helps that Busch will start fifth, so whatever slim chance he has at maybe pointing his way in remains open, but he’s completely dismissed it anyway. He’s not going to sell out for points at all.
“With stage cautions back in the equation, it changes what you have to do; you have to go for the win,” Busch said. “If it wasn’t going to be stage cautions, you could probably go for points and see your strategy still play out normal. But with the cycle, the flip, the leapfrog that you get with the caution that comes out, we have to race for the win.
“We saw last year [Joey] Logano ran for points the first stage, the second stage, and got back in 20th for the last stage and finished deep (18th). It doesn’t work, so it’s not going to be good enough for points for us.”
Eyes on Larson
Kyle Larson will start the race 15 points above the cutline but will immediately find himself at risk of falling below it starting the race from the back.
Barring a very good backup car, one that is currently being reconverted from a Las Vegas oval backup car, Larson will not be able to make up enough ground to score stage points by the end of the first segment. Crew chief Cliff Daniels will then be presented an option to either position themselves for stage points in the second stage or racing for the best finish possible.
Of note, Larson will have to pass literally every driver below the cutline on his way back to the front, and they will not make it easy on the 2021 Cup Series champion.
Hail Roval?
The last time Ross Chastain entered a race facing similar odds as to the ones he will face on Sunday, it resulted in the last lap ‘Hail Melon’ at Martinsville Speedway — when he went full-throttle into the wall and drove around five cars to transfer into the championship race at Phoenix.
Does he feel like he responds well to the highest-pressure scenarios?
“I feel like that’s really tough to say,” Chastain said. “There’s no doubt that the preparation is the same. People are asking all week how sim went but our prep is the same. We prepare for this race the same way as the other road course races.
“There are more questions about how we will react to this moment but we’re not preparing any different. I say it all the time, it comes down to the speed of the car and that will ultimately dictate the decisions we’ll make during the race.”
Chastain also doesn’t plan to spend a lot of time on Sunday during green flag runs wondering where he is in points.
“When I’m driving, all I can do is think about my four tires, right,” Chastain said.
Even last year at Martinsville, he only knew in the closing laps that he needed to gain three or four positions.
He is going to treat the middle of this Sunday’s race the same way and see where it shakes out come the end.
“At the end of each stage, I’m sure we’ll take an audit, look at the facts, and go about our business of pitting and balance, all that stuff,” Chastain said.
Where they start
1. Tyler Reddick
2. Christopher Bell
4. Bubba Wallace
5. Kyle Busch
9. Denny Hamlin
11. Martin Truex Jr
12. Ross Chastain
14. William Byron
17. Ryan Blaney
19. Brad Keselowski
20. Chris Buescher
36. Kyle Larson
Matt Weaver is a Motorsports Insider for Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter.