A week ago, the draft-day controversy surrounding former Missouri linebacker Shane Ray was purely medical, centering around a toe injury that ultimately turned out to not require surgery. Now, Ray’s draft stock is in further peril, given his Monday citation for marijuana possession and a traffic violation.
Ray was once considered a top-10 pick. Though the toe injury likely lowered his positioning on many teams’ draft boards, it didn’t seem like a significant enough red flag to keep him from being taken in Round 1. But with the recent traffic stop and what it uncovered, teams may no longer be comfortable with taking him in the first round. In fact, according to one former NFL decision-maker, he may drop all the way to Rounds 3 or 4.
Former Tampa Bay Buccaneers general manager Mark Dominik went on the Mike & Mike show on Tuesday to discuss Ray’s situation. He said, based on his experience in an NFL front office, Ray could easily fall well out of Round 1.
Said Dominik (via Pro Football Talk’s Michael David Smith):
“This changes Shane Ray dramatically because it’s, to me, such a poor decision this close to the draft. It’s the decision making. What is this guy going to do on Friday or Saturday night before a big game? Is he going to make another poor choice like this? The timing is so bad, and the foot issue, tells me that this guy isn’t just dropping out of the first round, he’s dropping to the third or fourth round now. I know he’s dropping out of the first round. I don’t see any way he’s going in the first round.”
In three years at Missouri, Ray totaled 120 combined tackles, 22.5 tackles for a loss and 19 sacks, with 65 tackles and 14.5 sacks in 2014. But on-field stats don’t make up for a lack of decision-making skills, and his poor choice just days before the draft could be reflected by when he’s taken by a team.
Ray is a top pass-rusher in a draft rife with outside linebacker talent, something else that could further hurt Ray’s draft stock. A player with lower collegiate production could now be more appealing to teams interested in Ray, simply because he doesn’t have the same red flags. The toe is one thing; being in legal trouble days before the draft makes things even murkier for Ray.
Dominik didn’t single out the marijuana possession itself as the issue—and it’s likely a number of NFL teams agree that it’s not the thing that stands out about Monday’s arrest. Instead, it’s the timing. This incident would be viewed far differently had it occurred in January and not late April.
Still, it’s undeniable that Ray is a talented football player. Now, we have to wait and see just how much a hit on his stock Monday’s events will take. Will teams look past it because of what he can produce on the field, or will they be scared off, choosing to take him later on, when it poses less risk to take someone who may not have his head in the right place to make an impact in the NFL? Those are questions that could take until Round 4 to answer, something no one expected for Ray just a month ago.
Photo: USA Today Sports